ESPN analyst Bradford Doolittle has a stat that puts Cam Schlittler second in the AL MVP race, and the whole exercise is a reminder that pitchers never win this award. The Yankees starter trails only Yordan Alvarez in Doolittle’s “AXE” ranking, and the odds against Schlittler are long — so long that even Doolittle calls it an uphill battle.
“Front-runner: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (146.9 AXE). Next nine: 2, Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees (143.0)”
Schlittler’s Numbers So Far
Schlittler has been dominant this season. In 31 starts, he owns a 1.95 ERA and 7.1 bWAR. He is the favorite, according to Doolittle, to win the AL Cy Young Award. The MVP is a harder mountain.
| Category | Schlittler |
|---|---|
| Starts | 31 |
| ERA | 1.95 |
| bWAR | 7.1 |
To win the AL MVP, Schlittler would need to make at least one more start, likely a lengthy one without allowing a run, and to take the MLB ERA title, not just the AL ERA title. Even a perfect game in his final start would not be enough.
What Would Have to Go Wrong
The problem is Alvarez. He is contending for the AL Triple Crown, and the Astros are still in contention for the playoffs. For Schlittler to win, Alvarez would have to lose the Triple Crown while the Astros miss out on the postseason.
Then there is Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays. He would need to have a terrible final few games and drop the Rays out of the AL East lead. Both things happening at once is nearly impossible.
The Pitcher Problem
Pitchers never win the MVP. That is the baseline. Doolittle’s willingness to name Schlittler as a candidate shows how great he has been this season.
The award goes to position players who hit. Schlittler’s ERA is impressive, but it is not the same as a hitter’s numbers.
Schlittler’s Chances
Schlittler’s chances are better than they normally might be because there is no clear runaway favorite in the AL MVP race. Even with Alvarez contending for the AL Triple Crown, the field is open enough that a pitcher could slip through.
But the path is narrow. A perfect game in his final start would need Alvarez to stumble and Caminero to fall apart. That is nearly impossible.
The Verdict
Schlittler is having a historic season. He is being treated as a real MVP contender by one of baseball’s sharpest analysts. That is the story.
Whether he wins is another matter. The odds are long, and the conditions are harsh. A perfect game, a Triple Crown collapse, and a division leader falling apart — that is a lot to ask.
But the fact that Doolittle is even willing to put Schlittler in the conversation tells you everything you need to know about how good he has been.
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