Prisco’s Week 2 NFL picks are out, and they are built on a single wager: teams that lost last week will get even, while teams that won will stumble. The picks lean heavily on the idea that Week 2 is get-even week, a chance for bad teams to play better and for good teams to show maybe they weren’t as good as we thought. It is a bet on regression, and the theory is that get-even week works.
The picks come with a 12-4 straight-up record from last week and a 9-7 mark against the spread. Prisco says he will take it, and the advice for this week is simple: the Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and others will bounce back after rough starts.
Get-Even Theory
Prisco opens with a warning about the nature of the picks. He admits that Week 1 can be a challenge, and he is taking his 12-4 straight-up record and his 9-7 mark against the spread from last week into this week’s selections. He likes the theory that get-even week works, but he knows it does not always hold.
He points to the Chargers as a key example. Los Angeles lost at home to the Cardinals last week, and Prisco expects the offense to show some life this time. Several other teams that lost last week will get right as well, he says.
The picks also assume that the Steelers, who lost to the Seahawks in the opener, will improve. The Patriots, who lost to the Seahawks as well, are expected to bounce back. The theory is that a week off helps, and the Steelers’ offense struggled in the victory over the Falcons, which Prisco thinks will carry over.
Week 2 Picks
The full slate of picks covers 14 games, with lines via DraftKings. Here is how Prisco sees the weekend shaking out:
- Falcons 21, Panthers 17 — Atlanta wins behind Bijan Robinson’s big day
- Bears 30, Vikings 24 — Chicago’s offense keeps rolling at home
- Eagles 30, Titans 13 — Philadelphia’s defense plays better
- Patriots 21, Steelers 14 — New England’s offense improves, low-scoring game
- Packers 27, Jets 20 — Green Bay bounces back after blowing a lead
- Buccaneers 30, Browns 10 — Baker Mayfield bounces back after turnovers
- Ravens 33, Saints 20 — Lamar Jackson looks MVP-bound
- Texans 28, Bengals 23 — Houston’s defense plays better after getting shredded
- Jaguars 23, Broncos 20 — Jacksonville beats Denver again
- Chargers 24, Raiders 16 — Los Angeles bounces back after the Cardinals loss
- Cowboys 31, Commanders 24 — Dallas’ defense limits Washington
- Seahawks 19, Cardinals 13 — Seattle takes it despite Drew Lock at QB
- 49ers 29, Dolphins 10 — San Francisco runs away
- Chiefs 30, Colts 16 — Kansas City wins at home
Key Games to Watch
Several matchups stand out as the picks’ biggest tests of the get-even theory. The Chargers-Raiders game is a test of whether a bad Week 1 performance can be corrected. The Patriots-Steelers game asks whether a week off fixes a broken offense. The Cowboys-Commanders game is a 0-1 battle between two teams that need a win.
The Ravens-Saints game pits a young team on the road against a powerful offense led by Lamar Jackson, who looked great last week and has MVP vibes. The Texans-Bengals game features Joe Burrow against a defense that got shredded by Josh Allen last week.
The Seahawks-Cardinals game is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game, with Seattle rested and the Cardinals facing a tough challenge even with Drew Lock at quarterback. The 49ers-Dolphins game is a blowout waiting to happen, with San Francisco getting extra rest after playing on Thursday.
The Problem With Get-Even Week
The problem with get-even week is that it assumes regression is predictable. Teams that lose often do get better, but teams that win often do not stumble. The picks lean on the idea that Week 2 is a reset, but the data does not support that consistently.
Prisco’s own record from last week shows the difficulty of betting on regression. A 12-4 straight-up record and a 9-7 mark against the spread is solid, but it is not proof that get-even week works. It is a pattern, not a rule.
The picks also assume that a week off fixes problems. The Patriots and Steelers both lost to the Seahawks in the opener, and the theory is that a week off will help. But a week off does not erase coaching issues, scheme problems or player mistakes. It just buys time.
What the Picks Say About the NFL
The picks reflect a league where parity is real but trends matter. The Chargers are a must-watch because they need a win. The Patriots are a must-watch because they need to prove they belong. The Cowboys are a must-watch because Dak Prescott needs to answer questions about his future.
The picks also highlight the importance of home-field advantage. The Bears are favored at home against the Vikings, and the Ravens are favored at home against the Saints. Home teams tend to perform better, and the picks lean on that trend.
The picks also show the power of quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is the star of the Ravens-Saints game, and Baker Mayfield is the focus of the Buccaneers-Browns game. Quarterbacks drive offenses, and the picks assume that a bad game can be fixed quickly.
Bottom Line
Prisco’s picks are fun to read and easy to follow. They are also a reminder that betting on regression is a bet against the odds. Get-even week happens, but it is not a guarantee.
The picks are worth following for entertainment, but they are not a strategy. They are a snapshot of what Prisco believes, and they are built on a theory that has a history of failing.
The picks are out, and the games are set. Week 2 will prove whether the get-even theory holds. Until then, the picks are a starting point, not a prediction.
The picks are bold, and they are based on a bet on regression. That is the honest assessment of a week of football that will be decided on the field, not on paper.
Source material: “Prisco's Week 2 NFL picks: Rams rout Giants; Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys bounce back,” CBS Sports.
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