Before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump said no peace with Iran would come, and he also forecast that oil prices would remain elevated through that period.
“I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said of Tehran on Wednesday.
While on his way to Texas for the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm election convention, where the balance of power in the US government could shift, he spoke.
The Oil Price Prediction
Speaking to reporters, Trump said “right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.”. He then added, “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”.
On Wednesday, oil prices rose to $100 (£74) a barrel for the first time since July, driven by increased fighting in the Middle East.
Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
The US military said it had attacked five oil tanker ships with ties to Iran. Tehran responded by launching attacks on two US Navy destroyers and eight oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, causing “heavy damage” to the vessels, according to Iranian state media.
One day before this report, the Houthis, a group linked to Iran, struck Saudi Arabia with a series of attacks, causing fires at oil facilities there.
The Election Claim
Trump accused Iran of trying to influence the US vote.
He said Iran was “desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there” — an apparent reference to the Democrats — “and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon.”
He provided no proof of the election claim.
Tehran has repeatedly denied it is seeking nuclear weapons.
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| US midterm elections | 3 November |
| Oil hits $100/barrel | Wednesday |
| 60-day ceasefire expired | Last month |
Pressure From Within
The war with Iran is putting pressure on Trump from inside his own party, while his approval ratings are slipping.
The midterm elections take place on November 3, and the Republican Party faces a real risk of losing its hold over Congress. It is a well-established pattern that the party of a sitting president typically loses seats in Congress during these elections.
Trump’s Texas Speech
In Texas, at the convention, Trump repeated himself on oil prices, predicting they would tumble “as soon as we win the war with Iran.”.
He also referenced dissatisfaction among some Americans on the issue.
He said so, with the words “Guys come up to me and say, ‘I wish you didn’t do the war in Iran. Now gasoline is up,'”.
Trump also said further negotiations with Iran could possibly happen, “but it’s not something we’re looking at.”
A War That Outlasted Predictions
When the conflict began, the US president forecast it would be settled within a few weeks. Seven months on, that prediction has proven false.
His approval ratings have fallen sharply because of the fighting and the wider costs it has pushed up, including fuel and groceries. Inside his own party, strong backers are now urging him to bring the war to an end without delay.
The fighting has grown worse in recent days, with oil facilities across the region coming under attack, which has pushed up the global price of fuel and anything else that depends on shipping.
Diesel for the United States reached its highest point ever earlier this week, and that record price is expected to spread through prices across the country.
The fighting began again recently after a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran formally expired last month. Rising fuel costs have also raised predictions that they could lead to higher interest rates in the US.
The convention was designed to fire up the party before November, with Trump aiming to do just that.
The war’s end, he argues, is just one election away.
Source: bbc.co.uk
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