The 2026 NFL season opens with a rematch of last year’s championship game. The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in the NFL Kickoff Game on Wednesday at 8:20 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle.
The Seahawks are favored by 3 points, with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Seattle sits at -174 on the money line. The SportsLine projection model, which runs every NFL game 10,000 times, has already made its selection.
Matchup details
Both teams finished the regular season with 14-3 records. Seattle capped that run with a 29-13 victory over New England in The Big Game. The Patriots reached that point in the first year of head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure.
The Seahawks face uncertainty in their defensive backfield, with starting safety Ty Okada sidelined by a hamstring injury and safety Nick Emmanwori ruled out due to an ankle issue. New England’s roster carries its own health concerns, as running back TreVeyon Henderson sits out with an ankle problem and reserve offensive lineman Ben Brown is inactive because of a knee injury.
Model’s track record
The SportsLine model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It enters the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
Over 44.5 is the call
The model’s projections put this game Over 44.5 points (-108) at betting apps. Both teams ranked among the top three scoring offenses last year, and both have since improved their offensive units during the offseason.
The Patriots signed A.J. Brown, a three-time All-Pro wide receiver, and selected an offensive tackle with their first-round pick to shield Drake Maye. Meanwhile, Seattle has lost Kenneth Walker III and suffered an injury to Zach Charbonnet, which puts rookie Jadarian Price in line for significant carries right away after being chosen in the first round from Notre Dame.
Last season, when Seattle played at home as the favorite, the Over came up short two times, finishing with a record of 7-2. That was the best record among all teams in the league for that situation, provided at least three games were played.
“The Over went 11-6 in Patriots’ regular season contests in 2025, which was tied for the second-best record in the NFL.”
Each of the last six regular-season encounters between these two sides has seen the Over come through.
Projected total
This model’s projection lands at a total of 46 combined points, with the Over coming through in 53% of the attempts made.
| Team | Regular season record | Last meeting result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 | Won 29-13 |
| New England Patriots | 14-3 | Lost 29-13 |
Spread pick
In well over 60% of the model’s simulations, one side of the spread is coming through, which makes it an A-rated pick according to the model.
Bonus offers
New members can look into promotional deals from DraftKings and Kalshi, including the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS for fresh sports traders.
If you’re looking for the complete set of picks for the Patriots versus Seahawks game, visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you should bet on.
Source: cbssports.com
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