Saturday’s Sept. 19 meeting between LSU and Ole Miss at the Magnolia Bowl features a set of betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, which has posted its latest LSU vs. Ole Miss odds before the Week 3 SEC matchup. The model behind that book is predicting the home team to win.
No. 7 LSU and No. 8 Ole Miss meet at 7:30 p.m. ET in Oxford, Miss., with both teams looking to make a statement early in the season. The game draws attention because of the man at the center of it: Lane Kiffin, who left Ole Miss for LSU last year, sparking a national storyline that has followed him since late last year.
Kiffin’s Exit
Before Kiffin fled for LSU, he turned Ole Miss into a College Football Playoff contender. He departed just prior to the CFP starting, and the reaction from Ole Miss fans was hostile. Since late last year, the feud between the two schools has grown into a national story, with Kiffin’s hiring at LSU attracting headlines across the sport.
Over their last five meetings, Ole Miss holds a 3-2 advantage, having won three of those games, including the most recent contest from last year. Both teams have split victories evenly during that span. The home squad has taken every meeting between these two sides over the last half-decade, with the winner of each matchup claiming the field. This season’s clash will mark the sixth consecutive time that the home team emerges victorious, with Ole Miss hosting for the first time this campaign.
The Quarterback Edge
Trinidad Chambliss holds a real edge at quarterback for Ole Miss, with DraftKings futures odds making him a +1300 favorite to claim the Heisman Trophy. Chambliss has opened the season with strong play.
Sam Leavitt serves as LSU’s quarterback after transferring from Arizona State, where he played a key role in leading the Sun Devils to the CFP in 2024. In his first two games with the Tigers, Leavitt has thrown two touchdown passes along with four interceptions. However, he has also rushed for five scores.
Leavitt’s status is a question mark. He appeared on LSU’s injury report on Wednesday as doubtful before being upgraded to questionable on Thursday. He now carries no injury designation.
The Coaching Connection
The two sides know each other well. Kiffin’s ex-defensive coordinator, Pete Golding, now leads Ole Miss. Fewer players departed Ole Miss to join Kiffin at LSU than anticipated, with Chambliss among those who stayed behind.
The two sides have a long history of tight contests. LSU claimed five consecutive Magnolia Bowl victories from 2016 to 20, yet the teams have swapped wins ever since.
What the Model Says
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 33-21 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks on betting sites since the 2024 season and has been upgraded for the 2026 season to better factor in the transfer portal.
The model has Ole Miss winning, with the Rebels taking 53% of the simulations and available at plus money line betting odds.
The Atmosphere
The feeling between the two sides has been anything but warm. Since last November, when Kiffin left, Ole Miss fans have shown a strong reaction to his exit, and the atmosphere at Saturday’s game in Oxford should reflect that, with the crowd likely to be loud and charged.
The stadium will be packed with noise, and the home crowd should give their side a real advantage. In these matchups, the quarterback who commits the least errors usually wins, and the Rebels hold that edge.
Picks and Odds
| Team | Record | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LSU | 2-0 | |
| Ole Miss | 2-0 |
Ole Miss is the pick here, and the SportsLine Projection Model backs it up, with Ole Miss winning in 53% of simulations while also carrying plus-money-line betting odds.
How to Bet
New customers at DraftKings can earn bonus bets by spending a certain amount. After spending $5+, users receive $200 in bonus bets as part of the promotion.
The sportsbook is running an offer tied to the matchup between LSU and Ole Miss. Place a bet of $5+ across seven days on college football, then use the promo code to receive $350 in bonus wagers.
Key Facts Box
- Game: LSU vs. Ole Miss, Magnolia Bowl
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.
- Chambliss is +1300 to win the Heisman
- Leavitt is listed as questionable
The Bottom Line
While the model’s record is notable, it does not provide a guarantee. It merely simulates possible outcomes.
The model is backing Ole Miss, and it points to three reasons why: the crowd will be loud, Chambliss is playing at home, and the model trusts the Rebels to take advantage of that setting.
Ole Miss is getting even in this matchup, and the simulation model supports that result across 53% runs.
The contest serves as a display of the rivalry, with the betting public keeping a close eye on it.
Source material: “LSU vs. Ole Miss odds, picks, predictions, betting preview for Week 3 college football matchup,” CBS Sports.
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