Fantasy managers face a simple question in Week 4: which wide receiver gets started, Deebo Samuel or Emeka Egbuka? The answer, according to the latest analysis, is that Samuel should be in the lineup and Egbuka should sit. Here’s why.
Samuel’s Recent Numbers
Samuel has been productive since joining the 49ers. Over the past three weeks, he has nine catches for 159 yards and two touchdowns. His involvement has grown steadily, too. In Week 1 he played in 42 percent of snaps, in Week 2 it rose to 60 percent, and in Week 3 it reached 76 percent.
The Key Variable
The key variable is Mike Evans. Evans is listed as a game-time decision for Week 4, and if he doesn’t play, Samuel’s snap share will likely surge against the Denver Broncos. Even if Evans does play, Samuel still has a favorable matchup. The Broncos have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game in the NFL, giving up 237.0 yards per contest. In their last two games, opposing teams’ top receivers have recorded 98 and 137 yards against them.
Egbuka’s Rough Start
Egbuka was supposed to be the star of the Buccaneers’ offense this season. He has instead struggled to live up to expectations. Through three games he has 13 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown, numbers that fall short of what many projected.
Part of the problem isn’t his doing. The Bucs’ passing attack has been weak, averaging the sixth-fewest passing yards per game at 185.0. The quarterback situation hasn’t helped. Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, and Jalon Daniels will make his first career start at quarterback in Week 4.
Daniels’ First Career Start
Daniels is unproven. That uncertainty carries over to Egbuka’s outlook. Playing with a rookie quarterback who has never started before is a significant risk, especially against a defense that has shown it can handle opposing passing attacks.
Egbuka, with the consistent lulls he has had in his fantasy production and now playing with a rookie QB making his first career start, is not good whatsoever for his Week 4 fantasy outlook.
Matchup Matters
Samuel gets the better matchup regardless of whether Evans plays. Egbuka faces a tougher test. The Packers allow the 10th-fewest passing yards per game, giving up 202.0 yards per contest. But the Packers’ defense has been vulnerable to top receivers recently.
In Week 2, Garrett Wilson of the Jets had five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay. In Week 3, Drake London of the Falcons had nine catches for 194 yards. Those performances suggest the Packers aren’t impervious to the pass.
The Bottom Line
The verdict is straightforward. Samuel should start, and Egbuka should sit.
The reasoning is simple: Samuel has a proven track record, a rising role, and a soft matchup against a defense that has given up big numbers to receivers. Egbuka has underperformed, plays for a struggling offense, and now faces a new quarterback making his first career start.
This is a rare case where the decision almost writes itself. Egbuka’s Week 4 outlook is poor, and Samuel’s is strong.
That’s it.
Source material: “Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Deebo Samuel vs. Emeka Egbuka,” Yahoo Sports.
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