A new CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Democrats maintaining their edge for a narrow majority of House seats, with voter concern about prices driving the advantage. The poll’s model estimates the Democrats hold both a seat edge and a lead in national vote preference, driven by opposition to the Trump administration’s policies and a Republican base that is less likely to turn out.
Prices Are the Economy
Almost all Americans rely on prices when measuring the U.S. economy, a habit that has persisted since the pandemic. It now shapes the midterms, with most voters believing President Trump’s policies are driving up food and grocery prices.
The Iran war is widely seen as pushing gas prices higher, and most voters still believe the administration has not done enough to bring them down. Those who describe prices as difficult or a hardship tend to vote Democratic.
GOP Voters Are Reluctant
Trump’s own party is less committed to showing up at the polls than the other side. Republicans rate his handling of inflation far worse than how they judge him on immigration or his general conduct in office.
These things are connected. The poll calls them the “Reluctant Republicans” sitting this election out, in some cases switching, in part because of dissatisfaction about prices. Republicans who say the administration isn’t putting enough focus on prices are less likely to vote than those who think it is.
GOP voters who believe their party’s candidates aren’t discussing the cost of living tend to be less likely to turn up at the polls. Among Republicans, those who think Donald Trump is performing worse in his second term than he did in his first are nearly 20 points less likely to state they will definitely vote.
Who Is Responsible
Today, voters weigh the Trump administration’s policies against the economy under former President Joe Biden’s — as responsible for today’, and they see the first by a wide margin.
Hispanic Voters and the Ballot
Mr. Trump won Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election at a higher rate than Hispanic likely voters are backing Republicans now. This matters for congressional districts, especially ones redrawn recently, because Republicans can’t win those without keeping their 2024 gains.
Hispanic voters rank the economy and inflation as their top concerns, with opinions on those issues matching those of the general electorate. Deportation policy also carries weight with them. A majority of Hispanic voters believe the administration is removing more people than they had anticipated, and a greater share still feel President Trump places excessive emphasis on deportation efforts.
Voters who identify as Hispanic see a lack of fairness in how ICE operates, with Hispanic individuals being stopped for deportation checks at a higher rate than people of other races and backgrounds.
| Group | Turnout Intent | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | Less likely to definitely vote | Inflation |
| Hispanic voters | Back Republicans at lower rate than 2024 | Cost of living, deportation |
Candidates and the Cost of Living
More people are voting against President Trump than are voting for him. A few Republican candidates have used campaign ads or made public statements to show how their own positions diverge from the administration’s approach or priorities.
In theory, it sounds good to many Republicans: they prefer a candidate who largely aligns with Donald Trump, but not without exception. When candidates come out against new tariffs, that position carries more weight, all else being equal.
Most voters would rather back a candidate who argues that athletes should only compete on teams that match their sex at birth, with Republicans making up the bulk of that support.
What Democrats Want
Democrats are seen as talking about the cost of living more than Republican candidates are, though neither is viewed as talking a lot about it. Just as Republicans don’t want a candidate who always agrees with Mr. Trump, Democrats don’t want a candidate who always agrees with the national Democratic Party.
A statement from people who describe themselves as Democratic socialists receives a divided reaction from ordinary party members and does not gain much attention outside their own circle.
Iran War and the Midterms
A number of Republican candidates have said they want the Iran war to end. This position matches what many voters say they want in a candidate, including a third of Republicans.
The majority of voters believe that Democratic control of Congress would lead to an end to the war, more so than Republican control would. Though the war with Iran ranks below the economy among top issues for voters, the two concerns are linked: most voters think the conflict has pushed gas prices up, and this sentiment is driving support for Democrats in the House race.
AI in the Campaign
This survey examines the role of artificial intelligence in the campaign as well, although the complete particulars are not shown within this excerpt.
The takeaway is simple: the Democrats’ House edge rests on a single worry. Voters care about prices, and the administration’s policies are making them harder. Republicans who disagree are staying home.
Source material: “CBS News poll finds Democrats maintain House advantage amid concern about prices,” CBS News.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.