The Raiders have gone through the first three weeks of the NFL season showing everyone that their preseason expectations were off. They defeated the Dolphins, the Chargers and the Saints, and now they sit at an unblemished 3-0 record that few saw coming. The Chiefs arrive in town next, and this could be the game where the Raiders face real adversity.
Kansas City is a 4.5-road favorite. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The game marks the biggest test yet for a Raiders team that has been beating up on bad defenses. The question is whether that record holds when Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III show up.
Raiders at 3-0
This season, Las Vegas was not expected to be much more than a bottom-feeder. They have proven otherwise, posting an undefeated record so far. Their victories have come at the expense of teams with significant issues: the Dolphins are putrid, the Chargers are mired in dysfunction, and the Saints are friskier than expected but unlikely to be true contenders. None of those opponents represented a serious step up in quality.
Fernando Mendoza was the first overall pick, and he was supposed to be the quarterback of the future for the Raiders. Instead, they brought in Kirk Cousins to merely hold down the position until Mendoza was ready. Now Cousins has turned into something else entirely. He’s tied for the league lead in touchdown passes with nine, which has helped fuel the team’s perfect start so far.
Why the Schedule Matters
A large share of the tale concerns the calendar itself. The Dolphins are a sorry lot, the Chargers are caught up in disorder, and the Saints show no sign of becoming serious challengers. As for the Raiders, they have yet to face the kind of examination they will receive when they meet the Chiefs.
The Raiders’ quarterback Tyler Shough has enjoyed a breakout season. However, his team has yet to face a defense on the level of the one Andy Reid runs in Kansas City. That unit represents a serious step up in quality, and the model projects that Las Vegas will find the going tough against it.
The Chiefs’ New Backfield
A new presence has arrived in the Kansas City running game. Kenneth Walker III has brought a forceful element to the offense that had been absent previously. Entering the weekend, he leads the NFL in rushing yards and yards per game.
Walker’s arrival alters how the offense operates. The responsibility is no longer solely on Mahomes to create plays. The future Hall of Famer doesn’t mind that, though. With a dominant rusher now on the roster, the Chiefs can target the Raiders through several avenues.
The Model’s Record
SportsLine’s Projection Model runs simulations of every game 10,000 times. Its history shows strong results, with gains exceeding $7,000 across $100 players on betting sites for top-rated NFL picks since it began. Going into Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, the model sat on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks stretching back to 2024.
Anyone tracking its selections at NFL betting sites would have found solid returns. The model gives the Chiefs a 55% chance of covering, which amounts to a slight advantage.
Best Bets for Week 4
One side of the Chiefs vs. Raiders spread has been identified by the model, and the selection is the Chiefs at -4.5. That pick rests on the notion that the Raiders have yet to face a test quite like this, despite all due respect to Tyler Shough and his breakout season.
The Kansas City head coach’s squad consistently performs well on the road, and there is no indication that this game will be an exception. The Raiders have not yet encountered a defense run by a coach like Andy Reid.
A run of model’s record is impressive on paper. The model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players since its inception. That is a significant return, even if it comes from a small sample of bets. The model’s spanning 54-43, which dates back to 2024, stands out for its success. The record is solid, though it falls short of being overwhelming.
What the Pick Means
On paper, the Chiefs are the superior team. They field a healthy Mahomes, a formidable runner in Walker, and a coach with a proven track record of winning away from home. The Raiders counter with a quarterback performing well beyond expectations, though their offense has yet to face a defense built by Andy Reid in Kansas City.
A narrow advantage favors the Chiefs covering the spread according to the model’s 55% projection. It is a slight edge, but it exists. The Raiders have not yet faced a test that compares to what they will face against the Chiefs.
Key Facts Box
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Model record: 54-43 since 2024, +$7,000 for $100 players
- Walker stat: Leading the NFL in rushing yards and yards per game
Game Times
| Game | Team | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | Chiefs -4.5 | 4:25 p.m. ET |
The bet lands on the Chiefs at minus 4.5 points. The model gives the Chiefs a 55% chance of covering, which amounts to a slim advantage. The Raiders have yet to face competition of the kind they will encounter from the Chiefs.
Source material: “Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, picks, prediction, spread, line: NFL Week 4 start time, preview, best bets,” CBS Sports.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.