Bitcoin is about to get a major bullish signal it hasn’t had in over a year. The three moving averages that traders watch are nearly lined up in a way that hasn’t happened since 2025, and the people who follow these numbers say it could mean the difference between a lasting rally and a quick one.
The averages are almost aligned
The 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s price are on the verge of a fully bullish arrangement. That means the shorter-term average sits above the medium-term one, which sits above the long-term one. Right now, the 50-day average is at $79,495, well above the other two. The 100-day is at $79,493 and rising, and it is on the verge of topping the 200-day at $79,539. When that happens, all three will be stacked in an order that shows bullish momentum across all three time frames.
It does not happen often for all three measures to line up this way at once. Vikram Subburaj, who runs India-based Giottus exchange and holds the role of CEO there, spoke with CoinDesk about the last time the three averages sat in this particular order. That was June 24, 2025.
What the averages signal
Traders depend on moving averages for gauging the direction of a trend. If short-term moving averages rest above the long-term ones, it shows that recent prices carry more weight than older ones, pointing toward upward momentum. The signal that is about to appear suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery over the past three months is genuine.
During the third quarter, the token’s price rose by over 40%, reaching $87,000. Since then, its climb has paused near $85,000, even as the U.S. Dollar Index keeps moving up.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.
Past signals, past results
A few of the prior setups have signaled the beginning of significant runs up. One appeared on Oct. 27, 2020, with BTC trading near $13,600, and it lasted until May 2021. By that point, Bitcoin had reached a then-record high above $64,000. A second was confirmed in early November 2023, and it remained in place until May 2024, by which time Bitcoin had more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.
Some setups have not paid off. The bullish arrangement that appeared in June 2025 endured for 97 days, yet Bitcoin rose modestly, from roughly $106,000 to $112,000. Another comparable formation in June 2024 held together for merely 20 days, during which Bitcoin declined by around 10%.
What the crossover doesn’t guarantee
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
The true examination at hand concerns whether Bitcoin’s spot price can keep holding above its 50-day average. Subburaj stated the case without adornment: “The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction.”
The order of events
| Date | Alignment | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 27, 2020 | Formed | Held until May 2021; Bitcoin hit record high above $64,000 |
| Early Nov. 2023 | Confirmed | Stayed intact until May 2024; Bitcoin more than doubled from $35,000 to $73,000 |
| June 2025 | Formed | Lasted 97 days; Bitcoin gained modestly from $106,000 to $112,000 |
| June 2024 | Formed | Lasted 20 days; Bitcoin fell about 10% |
Why the test matters
A reading above the 50-day average during a decline keeps the bulls in command. A move below it, however, strips the signal of any force quickly.
Subburaj’s warning is worth remembering: the crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation. The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.
What comes next
Bitcoin is on the cusp of a signal it hasn’t had in over a year. The recovery has already endured through a 40% surge in the third quarter. Whether it endures after the signal arrives depends on one simple test: holding above the 50-day average during a correction.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation.”
Source material: “Bitcoin is about to get a major bullish signal it hasn't had in over a year,” CoinDesk.
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