The Los Angeles Dodgers were supposed to dominate the Atlanta Braves in their NLDS matchup. Instead, they lost game two 3-2. The series is now tied at one apiece. That loss has a lot of people asking whether the Dodgers’ dynasty is in jeopardy.
The answer, according to the OutKick piece, is that the Dodgers’ problems are real, but the series is still anyone’s to lose. The luck argument is that the outcome was driven by random variance, not skill. But the Dodgers also have real issues. Their offense struggled in game two. Their best hitter is hurt. Their ace starter is not pitching his best.
The Setup: Dodgers Win Game One
The Dodgers took game one in mostly routine fashion. Tarik Skubal went six strong innings, and Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, and Max Muncy all hit home runs to win 5-3. The expectation heading into game two was that the Dodgers had a huge advantage.
Chris Sale, the superstar Braves starter, was held back for game three. That meant Blake Snell, a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, was set to start for LA. Atlanta countered with Ray Kerr, a little-used reliever who hadn’t pitched in the majors in 2025 and had a 5.64 ERA in 2024.
Snell was mostly ineffective. Kerr’s performance was fortunate, but the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Kerr’s Unlikely Performance
Kerr went 3.1 scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in a decisive game three of the wild card series. Then he followed that up with 2.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in game two of the NLDS. The underlying numbers tell a different story.
His BABIP allowed was .143 in the regular season, far below the league average of around .300. In 2024, his BABIP allowed was .403. His LOB% this year was 98%. Those numbers are unsustainable.
“Over a small sample size, like a single series, or even a few series, a pitcher like Ray Kerr can throw six shutout innings against two of the best lineups in baseball.”
The piece argues that Kerr’s postseason success is pure luck. BABIP is a measure of how often balls in play become hits, and Kerr allowed just .143 of them to drop in. That number will not hold over a full season. But in a short series, it can happen.
The Dodgers Miss Opportunities
The Dodgers missed every opportunity against the Atlanta bullpen. They made several uncharacteristic mistakes. The result was a 3-2 loss that evened the series.
One game is a small sample. The Dodgers remain slight favorites to win the series. But the Braves now get Chris Sale on regular rest in game three, at home, not long after he threw a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers at Truist Park with 11 strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed.
| Pitcher | Role | Recent Record |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Kerr | Reliever | 1.47 ERA in postseason, .143 BABIP allowed |
| Blake Snell | Starter | Two-time NL Cy Young winner, ineffective in game two |
| Chris Sale | Starter | Complete-game shutout with 11 strikeouts |
What Can Go Wrong
In a best-of-five series, one bad night can end your season. The piece lists several ways that can happen:
- An offense has an off night
- A left fielder misplays a routine pop-up
- A relief pitcher throws a wild pitch after the defense allows a gift triple
Those are scenarios the Dodgers could face. The piece does not say they are happening right now.
Ohtani’s Health Question
Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers’ best hitter, is clearly not healthy. He has two singles in the NLDS, but he has not looked anything like the dominant force he was in the 2025 playoffs.
In his first at bat, Ohtani struck out on four pitches from Kerr, only one of which was even remotely close to the strike zone. That kind of swing-and-miss from the team’s biggest weapon is a concern.
The Luck Argument
The piece’s central claim is that the Dodgers are not in jeopardy because of skill. They are in jeopardy because of random variance. Kerr’s postseason success is a fluke, and flukes regress. But the Dodgers also have real issues. Their offense struggled in game two. Their best hitter is hurt. Their ace starter is not pitching his best.
What Happens Next
The series moves to game three. Atlanta gets Sale on regular rest at home. LA gets Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting. The Braves likely have the advantage.
If the Braves win game three, the series becomes a 2-1 lead by Tuesday night. That is a significant shift for the Dodgers. A 2-1 deficit in a best-of-five series is a hole that is very hard to climb out of.
The Bottom Line
The Dodgers are not ruined. They are still favored to win the series. But they are vulnerable in ways they were not expected to be.
The lesson is simple: in baseball, nothing is guaranteed. Even the best roster can lose. Even the unbeatable dynasty can stumble.
The Dodgers have shown that they are beatable. Whether they can recover from this loss remains to be seen. But the idea that they are about to fall apart is premature.
They are still the team to beat. They just have to beat the guy throwing the ball for the other side.
Source material: “Is the Dodgers dynasty already in jeopardy after brutal game two NLDS loss to Atlanta Braves?,” Fox News.
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