President Trump was elected in 2024 with a mandate to bring down prices. Since then, costs have risen across nearly everything Americans buy, and voters blame him for it. That judgment is now shaping the midterms, with Democrats favored to win the House and the GOP facing a Senate fight that could shift dramatically in the final stretch.
Trump’s approval stands at 37%, tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century. Only one other president hit that low: George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost both the House and Senate. Now the pattern repeats, and the numbers suggest the same result is coming.
The Numbers Behind the Vote
History shows the president’s party loses about two dozen House seats and four Senate seats in midterms. It gets worse when approval falls below 50%. Trump’s current mark is 37%.
Democrats are favored to win the House with a five-to-15-seat net gain forecast. That would put them at 220 to 230 seats in January. The threshold for a majority is 218. The Senate race has shifted more dramatically since June, with six seats moving more in Democrats’ direction.
Economic issues rate as the top problem facing the country. The war with Iran and Trump’s tariffs have led to increased costs on many goods and energy. Gas prices have skyrocketed due to the Iran conflict; interest rates are creeping higher after the Federal Reserve hiked rates this fall.
The Cost Drivers
Several factors have pushed prices up since Trump took office:
- The war with Iran has raised costs on many goods and energy
- Trump’s tariffs have driven up prices on imported goods
- AI is driving up utility costs and making borrowing harder due to rising national debt
- Inflation outpaces wages, with little turnover in the labor market
- Interest rates are creeping higher after the Federal Reserve hiked rates this fall
Who Blames Trump
Sixty-five percent of voters say higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump’s policies than outside factors. Only 26% approve of his job on the economy. The trust gap is widening.
An NBC News poll found respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for only the second time in the Trump era. The last three midterms saw fewer lost House seats despite unpopular presidents because competitive districts are smaller.
Trump acknowledged the political headwinds at a campaign rally in Alabama. He said whether you have a great president or not, Republican or Democrat, they don’t do well in midterms. He added nobody had explained why.
What the Polls Show
Trump’s approval stands at 37%, tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century. Fifty-three percent strongly disapprove of Trump’s job, the highest ever recorded in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
The economic numbers are just as clear. Inflation outpaces wages, and there is little turnover in the labor market. AI is driving up utility costs and making borrowing harder due to rising national debt.
The Structural Limits
The GOP faces a set of structural limits that Democrats do not. Republicans face mid-decade redistricting, fewer competitive seats mostly in districts Trump won in 2024, a spending edge.
Unpopular presidents lose seats in midterms. Trump’s approval is below 50%.
What Comes Next
The House math is simple. Democrats need a five-to-15-seat gain to reach 220 to 230 seats. The Senate is tighter, with six seats shifting toward Democrats since June.
The question is not whether the trend exists. It does. The question is how far it runs.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs narrow rules against direct harm, such as forcing companies to disclose safety failures they hid, and is against broad rules that hand the market to the incumbents. The same logic applies here: Trump’s own party is losing seats because voters see prices rising faster than paychecks, and they blame the man in charge.
The numbers show a clear pattern. Unpopular presidents lose seats in midterms, and Trump’s approval stands at 37%, tied for the lowest pre-midterm mark in the last half century. Only one other president hit that low, and Republicans lost both chambers.
The polling is consistent. Sixty-five percent of voters say higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump’s policies than outside factors. Only 26% approve of his job on the economy. The trust gap is widening, and the NBC News poll found respondents trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for only the second time in the Trump era.
Source material: “Democrats' advantage is clear with less than a month to go in the midterm elections,” NPR.
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