The NFL returns on Monday Night Football tonight, and it brings a quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs are hosting the Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium, with Kansas City listed as 2-point favorites.
Mahomes is making his first start since tearing his ACL in Week 15 of the 2025 season. He missed the Chiefs’ final three games of that campaign, including a 20-13 home loss to the Broncos in Week 17. Kansas City finished 6-11, their first losing record since 2012, when Andy Reid took over as head coach.
The Chiefs also missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Their 2025 season ended with a six-game slide, capped by that loss to the Broncos. The teams have met six times over the last three years, combining for 41 points or fewer in each contest.
Mahomes’ Return
Mahomes returns after nine months away from the field. The Chiefs hope his comeback signals a shift in fortune, though the history between these teams is not promising.
The Chiefs have lost three of their last four meetings with the Broncos. Denver ended the Chiefs’ nine-year reign as AFC West champions last season, posting a 14-3 record and matching the franchise single-season win total from 1998.
The Broncos reached the AFC Championship Game after defeating the Buffalo Bills in overtime, 33-30. That victory featured a dramatic finish, but it did not include Bo Nix.
Bo Nix Returns
Bo Nix will be back in action for the Broncos after suffering a broken ankle near the end of that playoff game. He did not play in Denver’s 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Nix’s absence from the postseason was notable. The 26-year-old has now returned for the regular season opener.
The Week 1 Stakes
The game is the conclusion of Week 1 for both teams. It is also the first test for Mahomes since his injury.
The Chiefs have a lot to prove after their rough 2025 season. A win over the Broncos would be a statement, but the recent record suggests these games are close.
Monday Night Odds
The betting lines are tight for the NFL opener. The Chiefs are 2-point favorites over the Broncos, according to the latest consensus NFL betting odds.
SportsLine’s Projection Model sees the Under hitting in 63% of its simulations. The model also backs Travis Kelce to reach at least 39.5 receiving yards (-110, PropBetGuy).
Kelce is entering his 13th campaign. He finished with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons. But he racked up at least 40 yards in 12 of the 14 games in which Mahomes was under center last year.
“The SportsLine Projection Model sees that trend continuing in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season as the Under hits in 63% of its simulations.”
MLB Best Bets
Baseball also features a full slate on Monday, with 10 games across the majors. The biggest matchup is the Chicago White Sox at the Cleveland Guardians.
The White Sox hold a half-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central. Both teams are at 76-73, with the Guardians occupying the third wild card spot.
Chicago has lost 10 of its last 14 overall contests but is 6-4 in the season series. The two AL Central rivals have combined for seven or more runs in each of their last four meetings and eight of 10 this season.
The Full MLB Schedule
The Toronto Blue Jays face the Detroit Tigers in a three-game set at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are one game behind Cleveland for the third wild card.
The Cubs host the Atlanta Braves in a three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies atop the wild card standings.
The San Diego Padres continue their seven-game road trip with a four-game set against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
Betting Lines at a Glance
- Chiefs -2 over Broncos
- Guardians -155 over White Sox
- Blue Jays -137 over Tigers
- Cubs -136 over Braves
- Padres -204 over Rockies
How to Watch
The Broncos vs. Chiefs game airs on ABC and ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET. Fubo streams the game, and the SportsLine model’s pick is the Under 43.5 (-113).
The White Sox vs. Guardians game is on MLB.TV. The SportsLine pick is the Over 6.5 (-129).
The Bottom Line
Monday Night Football returns with a quarterback matchup that carries weight. Mahomes has to prove he is back at full strength, and the Broncos have to prove they can win in Kansas City.
The betting lines are tight, and the history between these teams suggests a close game. One team will win, and one will lose. The question is which one it will be.
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