On Wednesday, President Donald Trump will travel to North Carolina to campaign for Michael Whatley, the Republican Senate nominee who previously served as national party chairman. Whatley is running against Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper.
This campaign stop comes after Trump’s unusual midterm convention in Dallas, and it is his first rally since then. He has said he plans many more trips before Election Day, a promise that sits alongside growing voter frustration over the Iran war and his handling of the economy.
The Pick
Trump chose Whatley for the Senate race, and he had picked her to run the Republican National Committee before that. Republicans viewed her as a strong addition to take over the seat left open by Sen. Thom Tillis, who stepped down after a disagreement with the president last year.
Whatley is running for office for the very first time. In recent months, he has fallen behind Cooper when it comes to raising money, and polling from over the summer put Cooper ahead by at least a little bit.
The Balancing Act
Getting his base to vote is the priority for Trump’s presence creates a problem for Whatley. He will depend on the president’, yet he must also reach out to moderates and to conservatives who have grown unhappy with where the nation is headed.
The former president has admitted the difficulty, yet he is convinced his involvement will still prove beneficial.
Whatley’s Dallas Speech
Whatley focused his remarks in Dallas on Trump’s agenda, with particular attention to the tax cuts from his “big beautiful bill” last year. Rather than giving the president direct praise, he devoted most of his time to criticizing Cooper, arguing that he was soft on crime and bad for North Carolinians’ wallets.
“Under Roy Cooper’s reign, North Carolina became the most expensive state in the nation for health care costs,” he said, countering the former governor’s emphasis on the economy under Trump, especially gas and grocery prices.
Cooper Pushes Back
Cooper’s campaign pushed back against Whatley’s criticisms. It noted that the Republican has faced scrutiny for having a convicted sex offender offer the opening prayer at one of his campaign events.
Outside Money
Trump and national Republican donors are doing most of the work of reaching voters through TV and online ads, according to Whatley. Figures from AdImpact, which follows campaign advertising, show that total Republican spending on the race has passed $50 million, with Democrats having spent nearly $35.2 million. MAGA Inc., run by Trump, and other conservative PACs make up the Republican edge.
The Race’s Shape
North Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and the president has taken the state three times since then. That seat now stands as a central target for Democrats trying to take over control of the chamber.
Democrats may not have found a better recruit for this cycle than Cooper, who has never lost a statewide race in North Carolina across four terms as attorney general and two terms as governor.
What Shumaker Says
Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, who worked for Tillis’s and North Carolina Sen. Ted Budd’s campaigns, said Trump will energize Republicans who may not be as excited about the campaign as Democrats.
He pointed out that registered Democrats and Republicans in North Carolina are nearly equal in number, while independent voters exceed both combined. That group of over 3.5 million voters is more worried about the economy, an issue where Trump is weaker now than he was in 2024, than they are about crime or immigration, where North Carolina Republicans may still hold an edge.
They see the White House more focused on everything but the economy.
Wednesday’s Schedule
Wednesday brings no scheduled public appearances from Cooper, while the state Democratic Party is staging a press event designed to keep the focus on inflation during Trump’s presidency.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s base is what the Whatley campaign needs to turn out, yet the candidate cannot risk offending the moderates who might swing the race. The numbers tell a clear story: he falls short in fundraising, lags behind in polls, and relies on outside groups for funding instead of his own party’s resources.
Whether Trump’s presence will draw the base out in sufficient numbers is unknown, but his appearance has the potential to do so.
| Factor | Whatley | Cooper |
|---|---|---|
| First-time candidate | Yes | No |
| Fundraising standing | Behind | Ahead |
| Polling position | Behind by at least a little bit | Ahead |
| Campaign strategy | Depends on Trump’s base, reaches out to moderates | Not specified in report |
- Whatley is running for office for the very first time.
- He has fallen behind Cooper when it comes to raising money.
- Polling from over the summer put Cooper ahead by at least a little bit.
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