Harry Kane is the favourite to win the Ballon d’Or, with the shortlist due out Tuesday. History says goals alone rarely win the award. Since 1956, the game’s biggest tournaments have shaped almost every result.
The World Cup Effect
Sir Stanley Matthews won the first Ballon d’Or in 1956. Raymond Kopa became the first winner in a World Cup year, in 1958, after reaching the last four with France. France Football later revisited every pre-1995 edition and concluded Pele would have won that year after leading Brazil to their first World Cup title at 17.
The same story kept repeating. Josef Masopust won in 1962 after captaining Czechoslovakia to the final, though France Football judged Brazil’s Garrincha the true standout after winning the World Cup twice running. It reached the same verdict for Pele in 1970, after his third World Cup with Brazil.
A clear list of World Cup-winning Ballon d’Or champions followed:
- Bobby Charlton, 1966
- Paolo Rossi, 1982
- Lothar Matthaus, 1990
- Zinedine Zidane, 1998
- Ronaldo, 2002
- Fabio Cannavaro, 2006
Even the exceptions came close. Johan Cruyff won after reaching the 1974 final with the Netherlands, and Luka Modric matched that with Croatia in 2018. Kevin Keegan won in 1978 despite England missing the World Cup, though France Football later favoured Mario Kempes, top scorer as Argentina lifted the trophy. It made the same call for Diego Maradona in 1986 and Romario in 1994.
Beyond the World Cup
Only four of the last 19 Ballon d’Or winners lifted none of the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in their winning year. Lionel Messi won in 2010 despite Argentina going out early at the last eight, and again in 2012 and 2019 without a major trophy. Cristiano Ronaldo won in 2013 after Portugal did not progress beyond the matches held before the World Cup, on the back of a huge season with Real Madrid.
Others fell short despite huge club seasons in Europe’s top competitions. Some had won a treble with their club and reached a World Cup final in the same year. Some had shared in a treble won by a great Bayern Munich side. Some had put together a season full of goals, in the years since. Big cup runs and big seasons, on their own, have not been enough to move voters.
Kane’s Case
Kane cannot point to Champions League glory — Bayern’s European run ended in the last four against the winners, Paris St-Germain. That leaves him short of past winners like Ronaldo in 2014 or Modric in 2018 on that measure.
But his numbers are extreme.
Key facts:
– Kane scored 73 goals for club and country in 2025-26 — 61 for Bayern, 12 for England
– Bayern won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal; England finished third at the World Cup
– Only Messi has scored more in a single season among players from Europe’s biggest leagues — 82 for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-12
– Kane’s total beats Gerd Muller (72, 1972-73), Ronaldo (66, twice), Ronaldo (66, 1996-97) and Erling Haaland (64, 2022-23)
Rivals include Mbappe, Haaland, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham. Spain’s Golden Ball winner at the World Cup, a former Ballon d’Or winner, may be Kane’s strongest challenge of all.
History suggests Kane needs more than goals to win. His season, though, may be unlike any other on record.
Source: bbc.co.uk
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