Florida’s first-year coach has a problem with the odds. Jon Sumrall is not happy that his No. 21 Gators are 3.5-point betting favorites against fourth-ranked Ole Miss, and he said so in the most direct terms possible.
“I did talk to our team about rankings in Week 4 mean nothing,” Sumrall said Monday. “Nobody posts anything up in the building about this year’s team and where we’re ranked in Week 4. Nobody cares.”
Sumrall’s Drug Joke
Head coach Sumrall understands his roster better than any other person, and he recognizes that the Gators are good. They have not lost a single game, they just reached the AP Top 25, and they produced 495 yards of total offense while scoring 44 points in their last Saturday night win at Auburn. Yet when asked about the betting line, he answered with a joke.
“Who’s got us favored against these guys? Do they? There’s a lot of good drugs out there,” Sumrall said.
His reaction is more amusement than confidence. He is not questioning the Gators’ ability, but he is questioning the market’s logic. He wants his players to ignore the noise.
He also told his players to ignore the outside noise. “The same pats you’re getting if you go out and lay an egg, it’ll be the same hands hitting you in the back with a knife in it,” he said. “I tell our guys ignore all of that.”
His goal is simple. “The goal is how do we get to 1-0 each week,” he said. “If we don’t do self-improvement, we have no shot this week.”
The coach worries the ranking and the line could make his team believe they are already winning. He wants them to approach every game as a clean slate, not as a way of stating their case.
A Downtrend Against Ole Miss
Sumrall’s career record against the Rebels is poor. As a player, he went 1-7 during his time at Kentucky and at other coaching stops. As Tulane’s head coach, he suffered two blowout losses to Ole Miss last season.
This week’s approach is shaped by history. He understands that the game carries more weight than any ranking, and he understands that the betting line will be used to measure the Gators.
Sumrall acknowledged the intimidating setting expected inside The Swamp, one of the nation’s most raucous environments on game day. “It’s a special place,” he said. “I haven’t coached an SEC game as a head coach in that stadium yet, but like, (when) we played FAU and Campbell, you go out and get ready for the Gator Walk for the FAU game, and you’re like, ‘holy cow, this is electric.'”
He expects the crowd to be ready. “I fully expect our fanbase to be ready to go and create as much havoc as they possibly can to make this place a tough place to play when we play big games like this one,” he said.
Florida holds a 54-26 home record since 2015, though they have found success against ranked visitors, winning three of their last five home games against top-25 teams.
The Offensive Numbers
Under coordinator Buster Faulkner, the Gators’ offense is piling up points in large quantities. Running back Jadan Baugh is the SEC’s leading rusher after three games, and Georgia Tech transfer quarterback Aaron Philo is taking advantage of that production.
With eight touchdowns to his name and an average of just under nine yards per carry, Baugh enters the game off three straight 100-yard outings. Philo has thrown for 721 yards with six touchdowns, his game marked by a completion rate of 73.4%. The Gators’ offensive line has protected him well, with just two sacks allowed, keeping the unit on schedule.
The engine of the offense lies in the pairing of the two, with Baugh serving as the quick back and Philo as the quarterback who keeps the chains moving.
Ole Miss’s Defensive Weak Point
Florida will need to watch how its rushing attack holds up against the Ole Miss front seven, and the matchup is one to follow closely. The Rebels are giving up an SEC-worst 159 yards per game on the ground, and they have already given up a dozen plays of 10 or more yards against the run.
Wins against Louisville and LSU have come despite the Rebels struggling to stop the run early in the season. The Gators’ ground game looks likely to find openings against that vulnerable defense.
Sumrall knows the challenge. “They’ve got the best quarterback in college football, I think,” he said.
The Week 4 Warning
There is no point worrying about where the team sits in the rankings, according to Sumrall. Praises and compliments are also dismissed as having no value. The coach’s message is that trouble often comes alongside gifts, and he wants his players prepared for both.
Sumrall is not treating the Gators’ favorite status as a win. He is treating it like a target on his team’s back instead.
Key Facts
- Florida is a 3.5-point betting favorite over Ole Miss
- Florida is 54-26 at home since 2015
- Jadan Baugh leads the SEC in rushing after three games
- Ole Miss surrenders an SEC-worst 159 yards per game on the ground
| Game | Opponent | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | Ole Miss | Saturday | The Swamp, Gainesville |
The schedule is full, and the pressure is on.
Since 2015, the Gators have posted a home record of 54-26. However, they have turned in a strong run recently, winning three of their last five home contests against top-25 teams. The atmosphere at the venue will be electric, and the pressure on both teams will be significant.
According to Sumrall, Ole Miss sits in the top four with the best quarterback in college football. Florida can answer with its own weapons, but the history between the two coaches does not favor Sumrall.
Sumrall now has a shot to snap a run of losses against Ole Miss. With the Swamp at full noise, the Gators will need to deliver their best effort of the season to leave victorious.
Saturday is the day of the game. The Swamp will be full of people. The Gators will either be prepared or they won’t be.
Sumrall knows the odds. He just does not trust them.
Source material: “Jon Sumrall questions Florida's status as a favorite vs. No. 4 Ole Miss: 'Lot of good drugs out there',” CBS Sports.
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