Poll Shows Huge Swing in LA Mayor Race as Karen Bass Faces Favorability Problem

A new survey shows a wide lead for Nithya Raman over Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, a shift that has both campaigns scrambling to explain what the numbers mean before the November election.

The UC Berkeley/LA Times survey found Raman leading Bass by 11 points among likely voters, with 39% backing Raman and 28% backing Bass. A whopping 33% of voters remain undecided. The poll surveyed 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters online from Sept. 15 through Sept. 20, with a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

Who Backs Each Candidate

Raman’s advantage comes from younger voters and from the group that backed Spencer Pratt in the primary. Among voters ages 18 to 29, Raman leads 66% to 4%. Among voters 30 to 39, she leads 64% to 12%.

Bass holds older voters. She leads Raman 41% to 21% among voters 65 and older.

Among those who supported Pratt in the primary, 63% remain undecided between Bass and Raman. Among voters who have picked a candidate, 22% favor Bass and 16% favor Raman.

How Voters See the Candidates

Bass has a problem with how voters see her. Sixty-three percent of likely voters view Bass unfavorably, compared with 28% who view her favorably. Her unfavorable rating is higher than Raman’s, whose favorable/unfavorable split is 40% to 39%, with 21% having no opinion.

The Fire Question

Bass has been criticized for her handling of the 2025 Palisades fire. The survey asked voters to rate her response, and 56% rated it as poor or very poor. Only 14% rated it good or excellent.

What the Other Polls Show

Bass’ campaign called the new survey an “outlier.” A spokesman said one recent poll got the primary result wrong and that other surveys show a much closer contest.

Campaign spokesman Alex Stack said: “One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong isn’t reflective of the energy we see when talking to voters every day and what every other poll indicates — this is going to be a close race.”

The record supports some of that. In the June primary, Bass finished first with 34% of the vote and Raman came in second with 29%.

Other recent surveys tell a different story:

1. An August poll commissioned by Neighborhoods for a Better L.A., which supports Bass, had her ahead 41% to 35%.
2. A September survey by Estamos con Nithya, which supports Raman, had Bass at 38% and Raman at 37%, within its 3.7-point margin of error.
3. Raman’s own internal poll in early September put her ahead 44% to 39%, with 17% undecided.

The Endorsement That Matters

The Democratic Socialists of America’s Los Angeles chapter endorsed Raman earlier this month. Raman is a longtime DSA member.

What Happens Next

Los Angeles County begins mailing ballots Oct. 1. The election is Nov. 3.

The undecided group is large enough to tip the race either way. Raman needs to hold her base and convert Pratt supporters. Bass needs to close the gap with undecided voters and improve her image with younger voters.

The election is Nov. 3. Until then, every survey is a snapshot, not a verdict.

Where the paper stands

The paper backs neither candidate outright and instead judges each against its north star, individual freedom, small business and avoiding concentrations of power, finding Bass more aligned with its positions on individual freedom, small business and avoiding concentrations of power than Raman. The paper’s north star guides its judgment, not any partisan label.

The survey’s findings show Bass facing real problems with how voters see her. Sixty-three percent of likely voters view her unfavorably, compared with 28% who view her favorably. Her unfavorable rating is higher than Raman’s, whose favorable/unfavorable split is 40% to 39%, with 21% having no opinion. Voters also rated her handling of the 2025 Palisades fire poorly, with 56% rating it as poor or very poor and only 14% rating it good or excellent.

The undecided group remains huge, at 33% of voters, and it is the group most likely to decide the race. Raman needs to hold her base and convert Pratt supporters, while Bass needs to close the gap with undecided voters and improve her image with younger voters. The election is Nov. 3, and until then, every survey is a snapshot, not a verdict.

Source material: “Massive swing rocks LA mayor’s race as concerning poll released,” the New York Post.

election poll · Karen Bass · LA mayor · Nithya Raman · undecided voters