A new poll has put socialist Los Angeles Council member Nithya Raman ahead of Democratic Mayor Karen Bass in the city’s mayoral race, and one eliminated candidate is now openly cheering the result. The UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies/Los Angeles Times survey, released Wednesday, found Raman leading Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters. A third of voters remain undecided, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll questions were asked of 2,150 likely LA voters online between Sept. 15 and 20. The survey’s director, Mark DiCamillio, called the undecided figure “extraordinarily unusual to see this many undecided voters at this point in the race.” Raman herself called the poll “big news,” saying she has “surged ahead of Mayor Bass with an 11 point lead.”
Bass dismissed the poll as “One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong, means very little with 40 days to go.” But the man who predicted this exact outcome is not Bass’s ally. He is Spencer Pratt, the former independent mayoral candidate who finished third in the June primary with 26% of the vote.
Pratt’s Prediction
Pratt was eliminated in the June primary. His supporters were split at the time: 63% remained undecided, 22% favored Bass, and 16% backed Raman. Now Pratt is using the poll numbers to justify his prediction that Raman would beat Bass if voters didn’t choose him.
“I told everyone that if you don’t vote for me, Raman will beat Bass,” Pratt wrote on social media. “That’s why she entered the race 10 minutes before the clerk’s office closed. She knew I was gonna destroy Bass 1-on-1. Good luck LA.”
The poll shows the prediction was made before the race. Raman and Bass advanced to the general election from the primary, where Bass won 34% and Raman 29%. The new survey puts Raman ahead of Bass, and Pratt is not letting anyone forget he saw it coming.
The Ballot Position Gap
The generational divide is stark. Raman wins voters 18 to 39, while Bass leads among those 65 and older by 20 points. The DSA’s Los Angeles chapter endorsed Raman earlier this month, and she has also received backing from some city unions.
Bass’s supporters include members of Congress, state legislators, and LA County officials.
Unfavorable Ratings
Bass holds a 63% unfavorable rating compared to Raman’s 40% favorable. Pratt is taking full advantage of that dynamic. His second post went further, targeting the DSA specifically:
“Raman is Karen’s karma. Stabbed in the back by the commie she campaigned for, took pictures with her family… the moment Nithya saw an opening, she knifed Karen. Good lesson to all you democrats: NEVER trust the DSA. Socialists have no morals. They’ll gut you, too.”
The post frames Raman as a betrayal of the progressive movement that supported her campaign.
The Race Remains Open
The undecided voters are the key to this race. With one-third of Los Angeles voters still uncommitted and six weeks to Election Day, anything can happen. A late surge from Bass could flip the numbers, or Raman could hold onto the lead.
The margin is within the poll’s stated error range, and one outlier poll does not settle a contest this close. But Pratt has a point: he predicted this outcome, and the numbers now back him.
Pratt’s posts are a mix of gloating and warning. He is telling supporters that Raman is the candidate who will win if they do not vote for him. The message is blunt: Raman beat Bass, and the DSA’s influence is the reason.
The poll is early, and the race is far from decided. But Pratt has turned a polling number into a personal victory lap. He predicted the upset, and now he is celebrating it publicly.
| Candidate | Primary Result | General Election Standing |
|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 29% | Leading Bass 39% to 28% |
| Karen Bass | 34% | Behind Raman |
The table tells the story. Raman trailed Bass in the primary but now leads in the general election poll. Pratt’s prediction was made before the numbers were known, and he is not letting anyone forget it.
The DSA-backed candidate is ahead of the mayor in the polls, and Pratt is making sure everyone knows it. The race is still wide open, but the man who said Raman would beat Bass has already claimed his win.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither candidate’s side in this horse race and instead supports individual freedom, small business, and avoiding concentrations of power, which neither Raman nor Bass have shown much sign of advancing. The poll’s margin of error and the undecided voters mean the lead is not settled, and Bass’s dismissal of it as an outlier is reasonable.
This is a race between two candidates who have done little to advance the paper’s north star of individual freedom, small business, and avoiding concentrations of power. The poll shows Raman leading Bass, but the undecided figure is extraordinarily unusual, and the margin sits within the stated error range. Bass’s dismissal of the poll as an outlier is reasonable, and the paper agrees with her on that point.
What matters now is the undecided voters. With one-third of Los Angeles voters still uncommitted and six weeks to Election Day, anything can happen. Raman could hold onto the lead, or Bass could flip the numbers. The paper will watch the race as it unfolds, judging each candidate issue by issue against its fixed positions.
See the video the story is built around at Fox News.
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