Trust in the U.S. Postal Service to deliver mail-in ballots on time has fallen sharply, according to a new poll. A survey of voters found confidence in the service dropped 13 percentage points since 2024, from 71% to 58%.
The decline returns trust to levels last seen in the fall of 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll surveyed 1,280 voters Sept. 14–15 in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
The Numbers Behind the Drop
USPS says it delivered more than 233 million pieces of election mail this fiscal year through the end of August, with a 97.94% on-time score. That performance metric is real, but the poll shows voters aren’t convinced.
The agency’s statement pushed back on the poll’s findings. “There has been a lot of misinformation recently about the Postal Service’s role in the electoral process, which may have had an impact on public sentiment,” USPS said. “But the Postal Service’s actual performance metrics speak for themselves.”
The statement also noted that “Postal employees take great pride in their responsibility to support the democratic process.” That pride is tested. The service is struggling to meet its mandate to deliver mail six days a week to almost every U.S. address.
In recent decades, USPS has faced pressure from a 10-year restructuring plan launched in 2021. The plan came amid declining first-class mail volume, leading to longer expected delivery times and lowered service-performance goals. A Government Accountability Office report found USPS has been unable to fully reach those lowered service goals.
What the Poll Found
The poll also measured how voters plan to cast their ballots. A partisan divide persists:
- 32% of Democratic voters plan to vote by mail in the midterms.
- 12% of Republican voters plan to vote by mail.
- 26% of independent voters plan to vote by mail.
Republicans (70%) are far more likely than Democrats (18%) and independents (32%) to see significant fraud in mail voting. That skepticism tracks a broader national debate over the integrity of the system.
Most voters (55%) overall believe little or no fraud exists when mail-in voting is available. Still, the fraud concern is concentrated on one side of the aisle.
The Cost of Restructuring
The restructuring plan has hit rural communities hardest. This month, the USPS Office of Inspector General concluded that major delivery-network changes haven’t improved finances and have disproportionately harmed rural communities, risking customer loss and brand damage.
Washington state offers a specific example of the strain. A report from Sen. Maria Cantwell and Secretary of State Steve Hobbs found 19 counties doubled their ballot-rejection rate due to late postmarks this year’s primary versus 2024.
The pattern is consistent: cuts to the network, delays in delivery, and higher rejection rates at the state level. Voters notice. The poll’s drop in trust reflects that pattern.
The Supreme Court Decision
The timing of the poll matters. A Sept. 14 Supreme Court ruling blocked the Trump administration from restricting voting by mail via the Postal Service for the midterms.
That decision preserves the status quo for now. USPS expects to keep delivering election mail as originally planned, including its “extraordinary measures” policy starting a week before Election Day.
Trump’s Long Claim About Voting
President Trump has long claimed, without evidence, that mail voting is “corrupt.” A 2025 Brookings review found fraud to be exceptionally rare.
The contrast between the claim and the evidence is stark. Trump’s assertion rests on nothing. The Brookings review rests on data.
Most voters (75%) feel confident their state or local government will run a fair and accurate midterms election, up from 69% in March. That confidence in government is notable, even as confidence in the Postal Service slips.
The Road Ahead
USPS faces a difficult path. The restructuring plan is still ongoing, and rural communities are bearing the brunt of it. The inspector general’s conclusion that major delivery-network changes haven’t improved finances and have disproportionately harmed rural communities is a matter of record.
Misinformation about the service’s role in the electoral process may have had an impact on public sentiment, as USPS acknowledged in its statement.
The gap between performance and perception is the story.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the USPS delivering election mail on time at a 97.94% rate and is against treating voter confidence as a partisan horse race rather than judging the service by its actual performance. The poll shows a drop in trust, but the service’s own numbers tell a different story — 233 million pieces of election mail delivered on time through August, with a score that speaks for itself.
The poll’s findings reflect a real problem, but the cause is clear: a decade of restructuring that cut rural services, raised delivery times, and lowered expectations. The inspector general’s conclusion that major delivery-network changes have harmed rural communities disproportionately is a matter of record, and the Washington state example shows the direct result — late ballots, rejected votes, and lost trust.
The paper wants the USPS to stop cutting rural services and return to full six-day delivery nationwide. Until then, voters should judge the service by its actual numbers, not by the partisan noise around it. The gap between performance and perception is the story, and the paper is watching both sides of it closely.
Key Facts Box
- Poll: 1,280 voters surveyed Sept. 14–15, English and Spanish
- Margin of error: 3.8 percentage points
- Trust in USPS delivering ballots on time: 71% in 2024, 58% now
- USPS delivered 233 million pieces of election mail through Aug. 2026
- On-time score: 97.94%
- Ballot-rejection rate doubled in 19 Washington state counties this year vs. 2024
- Rural communities: major delivery-network changes have harmed them disproportionately, per the inspector general
- Confidence in state/local government running a fair midterms election: 75%, up from 69% in March
The drop in trust is real. The performance metrics are strong. The gap between the two is the story.
Source material: “Poll: Trust in the U.S. Postal Service delivering mail-in ballots on time has fallen,” NPR.
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