Two tropical systems are on the move, each bringing warnings of heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides. Hurricane Polo is pushing toward southwestern Mexico, while Tropical Storm Nolo is aiming for Hawaii.
Polo, an “extremely dangerous” storm, became a major hurricane Wednesday and is expected to skirt Mexico’s Guerrero state. It will bring 4 to 6 inches of rain through Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Nolo, meanwhile, is churning about 295 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, and could become a hurricane by Thursday night. It could drop up to 20 inches of rain on the Big Island as early as Friday.
The two storms are separate threats to two separate coasts. Neither system is expected to make landfall in its respective country, yet both carry the same peril: torrents of rain that can overwhelm the ground beneath them. Polo’s winds have already reached 160 mph, and Nolo’s waters could deliver 20 inches of rain on the Big Island alone.
Polo’s path over Guerrero
Hurricanes have battered Guerrero state heavily in recent years. The region is rural and mountainous, with small tourist towns and ports dotting its landscape. Poverty marks much of the area, and residents routinely complain that authorities abandon them to fend for themselves during natural disasters.
Meteorologists and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum say Polo will not make landfall, yet forecasters warn that life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible. Rain and strong winds have already begun striking the coast, sending waves crashing onto the normally pristine beaches.
Wednesday night brought winds reaching 160 mph within the storm, and its torrent could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, with Guerrero bearing the brunt of the danger.
A business owner’s fear
While Concepción López Villegas worked on fortifying her seaside eatery in Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán, against the expected onslaught of rain, strong waves were already striking some beaches. She said she feared the tempest could demolish the small enterprise she spent decades building.
“We’re worried and trying to protect our businesses,” López Villegas said. “And of course, we’re sad because it’s our heritage, our legacy that from one moment to another could be destroyed.”
Evacuation orders in Mexico
Some regions in Mexico have been evacuated by the government, which has also put shelters into service for people affected by the disaster. Thousands of military and Red Cross personnel have been sent there ahead of time as a precautionary step.
Nolo’s approach to Hawaii
The National Weather Service says Tropical Storm Nolo will probably become a hurricane by Thursday night and could reach the Big Island as soon as Friday. It forecasts that the storm will gain strength before approaching the island on Friday or Saturday.
John Bravender, a weather service warning coordination meteorologist, said during a news conference Wednesday afternoon that the storm has the potential to be a major hurricane. His main concern is the possibility of flash flooding. He said 20 to 30 inches of rain could fall through Saturday on southeastern parts of the Big Island, the same region hit hard in August by Hurricane Lala.
“That by itself could cause catastrophic flooding, but when you put that on top of grounds that we’ve been raining off and on for the last couple of months … that rain could cause even more damage,” Bravender said.
Across all the islands of Hawaii, he urged people to get ready, in case the storm’s path changes course.
“You need to take action now,” said Bravender. “Today is really the last dry day you have to get ready.”
Preparations on the islands
In a video posted to social media, Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda addressed residents directly, asking them to begin getting ready for the approaching storm. He advised that people put together an emergency kit stocked with food, water and medications, cut back overgrown plants and clean out drainage systems.
The electric cooperative serving Kauai asked residents to get ready for “the possibility of prolonged power outages,” storing nonperishable food and potable water while they did so. More than 100 homes on the island still lack electricity from Hurricane Lowell, which moved past Kauai on Sept. 7.
The state’s main power company, Hawaiian Electric, announced that workers will head back into danger zones in readiness for the approaching storm.
Odalys adds to the mix
On Wednesday, Hurricane Odalys grew stronger over the Pacific Ocean, with winds reaching a top speed of 85 mph. The storm sat roughly 1,205 miles to the west-southwest of the southern end of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula. The hurricane center says it is not expected to make landfall.
The guidance indicated that Odalys was expected to grow stronger during the coming two days before most likely weakening by the end of the week.
| System | Current position | Expected landfall | Potential impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Polo | 130 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo | Skirts Guerrero state | Flooding, mudslides |
| Tropical Storm Nolo | 295 miles south of South Point, Hawaii | Approaches Big Island Friday | Up to 20 inches of rain, flooding |
| Hurricane Odalys | 1,205 miles west-southwest of Baja California | None | Likely weakening by week’s end |
The warnings in context
Guerrero’s warnings focus on mudslides, while Hawaii’s target flash flooding on ground that has soaked up months of rain. Both alerts are direct and pressing.
The shared issue between both places is simple: an excess of water arriving in a short span. This leads to quick motion.
The ocean is not far from where López Villegas runs her restaurant, and the water has already begun to reach it. She is working to keep the storm from damaging her business, but she is fully aware that what comes after the rain is the true threat.
The pattern of two storms
Guerrero has suffered repeated hurricane strikes in recent years, and Polo carries the same hazards: flooding, mudslides, and the ruin of homes.
The risk with Nolo is just as great as it was with Lala back in August. Months of intermittent rainfall have already saturated the ground, and 20 more inches of rain could put it over the edge. A flood of that scale would be devastating.
What happens next
Over the coming days, it will become clear which of the warnings actually come to pass and which ones simply fade away. Guerrero lies ahead for Polo, while Hawaii waits on the course of Nolo.
The fate of López Villegas’s restaurant rests on the next few hours, according to the situation described. As for the people of Hawaii, their ability to weather Nolo without additional harm depends on the next several days.
Everything is set: the shelters are prepared, the crews are standing by, and the arrangements have been made.
But the rain is coming, and there is no stopping it.
Each storm moves on its own course, yet both take the same form — a wall of water advancing upon a land that has no means to receive it.
Source material: “Hurricane Polo fuels fears of landslides in Mexico as Nolo closes in on Hawaii,” NPR.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.