San Sebastian’s Creative Investors’ Conference has become the place where the film business tells itself it is getting better, even as the numbers keep getting worse. For four years, CIC, co-organized with CAA Media Finance, has insisted on upsides and opportunities in the aftermath of COVID and the peak TV downturn. The 2026 edition leaned harder than ever on the idea that U.S. theatrical is rebounding, that social media is a friend, and that international films are about to dominate the Oscars. The problem is that none of those claims quite match the facts on the ground.
Panelists talked up a dramatic U.S. theatrical rebound, citing record summer box office. They also pointed to new sources of energy in the sector: the build of select national industries around the world, and an ever-growing involvement of equity investment in financing. The mood was one of targeted optimism, as if the breeze off the bay were carrying some kind of economic cure.
But the market at large in TV sell still lags. Ampere Analysis points out that the market sits at 75% of peak TV levels. Huge problems in key markets remain. In Christine Vachon’s lapidary phrase, U.S. independent production is “basically fucked up.” That is the reality the conference spent most of its time ignoring.
The Rebound Argument
Elissa Federoff, head of distribution at Neon, was a major cheerleader for optimism at the conference. She appeared on a key first-day panel called The New U.S. Landscape and argued that the industry has been recovering steadily since the pandemic.
“I think it’s a recovery; it’s a phenomenal result,” Federoff said. “Every year since the pandemic, we have seen growth, and it’s been amazing to watch.”
She listed the obstacles that came with the pandemic: COVID happened, strikes happened, theater closures happened. But she saw something else happening alongside them.
“We’ve seen opportunities for new pathways during this point,” Federoff added. “There has been a rise of a lot of other channels of entertainment, gaming, social platforms, streaming platforms.”
The argument is that the pandemic created new ways to engage with entertainment, and that those new channels have helped drive audiences back to the movies. The evidence she offered was personal: she noted that most cinemagoers are now “younger, Millennial, Gen Z and even younger.”
Social Media as a Pathway
The explosion of social media was once seen as a threat to cinema audiences. Now it is being framed as a pathway. Rob Williams of Sumerian Pictures, whose company launched in June 2025 and picked up “Josephine” at Sundance, said that people are coming back to movie theaters but engaging with movies in different ways.
“Cinemagoers now mostly find their movies on social media,” Federoff noted.
Adele Romanski, producer at Pastel Pictures, put it more bluntly: “Playing to social media, distributors are looking for movies to create conversations around.” She was speaking about films like the queer epic “La Bola Negra,” winner of the often Oscar-predictive TIFF People’s Choice Award, which has a pop sensibility, mainstream reach and embraces the LGBTQ cause.
The context explains why there is excitement around such films. They are built to spread through the very platforms that were once feared as competition.
The YouTube Phenomenon
The conference conversation kept circling back to two U.S. box office sensations: “Obsession,” based on a YouTube short, and “Backrooms,” which began life as a viral YouTube web series. The panel Europe’s Current Challenges and Opportunities spent significant time on both.
“‘Obsession’ and ‘Backrooms’ are two movies that completely changed the way Hollywood is talking about films,” said Lorenzo de Maio, who is L.A.-based.
The point was that distributors no longer need to wait for traditional marketing channels. They can bring the movie to the audience directly, and the creators of “Obsession” and “Backrooms” brought their own audiences with them.
“That same phenomenon is also felt in Europe,” noted Ron Halpern of StudioCanal. “There is an audience that loves movies, a younger audience, too, and that is open to different authentic voices in a way five or 10 years ago we wouldn’t have been that confident about.”
Halpern’s team knew Florence Pugh would “deliver the TikTok audience,” and she did. The two-hander “We Live in Time,” starring Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh, benefited from that same direct-to-audience approach.
International Oscar Domination?
Rodrigo Teixeira, behind “I’m Still Here,” made a bold prediction about the future of the Academy Awards. He argued that international films are already making a mark, and that the trend will accelerate.
“We are seeing at least three-four international films in the best film category,” Teixeira said. “And in five years from now, I believe international films will make up 60% of the category for best film, because we can talk more. We have freedom of speech, and in the U.S., without freedom of speech, it’s difficult to get financed.”
Teixeira’s track record supports his confidence. He broke out producing U.S. independents with “Francis Ha” and “The Witch,” and has since moved his operations globally. In 2025 he shot films in Brazil, Romania, the U.S., Chile, Argentina and Lebanon.
The argument is that international filmmakers have more freedom to speak, and that freedom translates into more visibility at the Oscars. The U.S. system, by contrast, struggles to finance films that push against its political boundaries.
International Is Still Hurting
The international success story comes with a caveat. While some markets are booming, others are shrinking. Brazil is a case in point.
“I’m Still Here” and “The Secret Agent” made “exceptional” box office in Brazil, Teixeira said. “The Blue Trail” had “very good solid results.” But a lot of other Brazilian films make only 10,000 admissions in theaters.
“And that kills the film,” he concluded.
In South Korea, the situation is similar. Heejeon Kim of Barunson C&C noted that companies are increasingly looking internationally “out of necessity.” “The number of films and the revenues, everything’s shrinking, financiers are really struggling to invest money,” she added.
Vincent Maraval, of Goodfellas, put the global picture in perspective. “What we’ve seen in the last decade in many, many countries is that local films’ market share has grown: People want to see local films. Indonesia’s cinema market share is now 60%. 10 years ago, it was probably 10%, 12% or 15%. That’s a major challenge for us,” he said.
Sales agents and producers are turning to equity to make up a shortfall not only in pre-sales but in streamer pull-back.
Equity as a New Normal
Equity investment is becoming a standard part of the financing toolkit, not just in the U.S. but around the world. Maraval pointed to the shift across multiple countries, where local films are gaining market share and audiences are hungry for their own stories.
“There are so many opportunities to co-pro within Europe and so many ways of doing it. The complexity is there, but it’s worth navigating it because it’s a thriving industry,” said De Maio.
The challenge is that the local gains come at the expense of the international. As audiences gravitate toward local films, the appetite for foreign titles shrinks. That makes it harder for international filmmakers to find distribution and financing.
The Contradictions
The conference was full of optimism, but the contradictions were everywhere. The U.S. theatrical rebound is real, according to the record summer box office. But the TV market sits at 75% of peak, and independent production is “basically fucked up.”
The international success at the Oscars is real, but the Brazilian cinema is dying. The equity build is real, but it is a complication, not a cure.
The conference’s message is that the industry is adapting to new realities. The reality is that the adaptation is uneven, and the costs are being borne by small filmmakers in specific markets.
The takeaway is simple: the conference is a celebration of survival, not a victory lap. The industry is finding new pathways, but those pathways are narrow and crowded.
- The U.S. theatrical rebound is real, but the TV market sits at 75% of peak.
- International films are winning Oscars, but Brazilian cinema is shrinking.
- Equity is growing, but it is a complication, not a cure.
- Social media is a friend, but it is also a threat to the old distribution model.
The conference is a snapshot of a moment when the film business is telling itself it is getting better, even as the numbers keep getting worse. The optimism is real, but the contradictions are the story.
The question the conference’s participants did not address is whether the new pathways are wide enough to sustain the industry. The answer may come in five years, when Teixeira’s prediction about the Oscars is tested.
Source material: “San Sebastian’s Creative Investors’ Conference: 10 Takeaways From AI to ‘Obsession,’ YouTube and Why International Movies Could Dominate the Oscars,” Variety.
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