Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has admitted he prepared for the possibility that the United States might invade Canada amid recent trade tensions with President Donald Trump.
Carney made the statement in an interview with the New York Times published on Wednesday. He said he weighed the possibility after Trump began referring to Canada as the 51st state.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case,” Carney told the Times, arguing that “it would be irresponsible not to.”
The Invasion Planning
Carney framed the planning as a matter of managing worst-case scenarios. He said it was a tail risk — an extremely unlikely but possible outcome.
He did not elaborate further on what specific preparations he made beyond acknowledging the planning.
Trump’s 51st State Remarks
Trump began referring to Canada as the 51st state, a phrase that Carney took as a sign of escalating tension. The prime minister addressed the reference directly in his interview with the Times.
Carney’s preparation for an invasion, he said, was part of looking at extreme tail risk — the rare, unlikely event that still needs to be considered.
The Trade Escalation
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada have continued to escalate over the past year. Trump has levied increased tariffs, and Canada has responded in kind.
Carney admitted in a video statement earlier this month that Canada had come to overly rely on its economic relationship with the U.S. in recent decades.
“The past 40 years has been a period of deeper economic integration with the United States. Truth is, it was easy business, but it meant we relied too much on one economic partner. It’s clear that time is over,” Carney said.
“This is why our plan, since I came into office, has been development and diversification, not denial, waiting to go back to some good old days, and not continued dependence,” he added.
Trump’s Warning to Europe
Trump last week dismissed reports that Canada may be joining the European Union as an associate member. He said the U.S. could impose heavy tariffs on Europe if he believed such a “laughable” move was made with “bad intention.”
“I think it’s laughable,” Trump responded. “If they do that, if I think it’s at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things.”
“If Europe does that with a bad intention – if it’s a good intention, that’s fine – if it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe,” he added.
Carney’s Video Statement
Carney’s video statement came earlier this month. In it, he addressed the country directly about the changing economic relationship with the U.S.
He acknowledged that Canada had grown too dependent on one partner, and he laid out his plan for diversification.
The Diversification Plan
Carney’s plan since coming into office has been development and diversification. He wants Canada to move away from its heavy reliance on the U.S. market.
He rejected denial and nostalgia, arguing that the good old days are gone. Instead, he pointed to a future of growth and new partnerships.
Key Facts
- Carney spoke to the New York Times on Wednesday
- Trump referred to Canada as the 51st state
- Tariffs have risen on both sides in recent months
- Carney admitted Canada relied too much on one economic partner
The Context
Carney’s acknowledgment of invasion planning fits his description of risk management. He presented it as routine rather than extraordinary.
The admission comes as Carney pushes a broader economic agenda of diversification, moving away from the easy business of relying on one partner.
Source material: “Canadian PM Carney says he was prepared for Trump ordering invasion,” Fox News.
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