This is the final Thursday of the 2026 MLB regular season, so it marks the last parlay in this column for the year. The guidance here favors a visiting team, an unusual position since the advice rarely goes that way.
The Athletics host the Astros in Sacramento for the start of a series at Sutter Health Park, a venue where the wind typically blows out at around 10 mph. With the total set to 11 runs, the Under 11 has drawn solid interest from bettors. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 ET.
The Road Team Gets the Call
I rarely advise backing the visiting side, but tonight I’m making an exception. Houston has attracted more than 93% of the total volume of wagers on the money line, and the Under 11 is also attracting plenty of interest from bettors.
The selection lands on Houston on the money line, paired with the Alt Under 14 inside the same-game parlay. The DrafKings SGP cost stands at -110, a figure that may shift.
Athletics Finish Well Under .500 Again
The Athletics are finishing well under .500 for a fifth straight season. Fifth-year manager Mark Kotsay is unlikely to return in 2027, unless ownership is so cheap it does not want to pay him not to manage. The team is the last in MLB since July 1, and it moves to its permanent Las Vegas home after this season.
Injuries have battered Sacramento’s roster throughout 2026, with Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom all missing considerable playing time. The team hovered near .500 in May before the injuries started to accumulate, after which the club’s performance took a sharp dive.
Barnett is slated to pitch, yet he has gone the distance and fallen short in his last 11 appearances on the mound. The left-hander was sent back down in late August before being brought back up last week, where he gave up three runs and seven hits over 3.1 innings during a loss at Cleveland.
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts Barnett will throw 4.6 innings, allowing 5.1 hits while striking out 4.3, resulting in 2.6 earned runs. He faced the Astros once this season, pitching four shutout innings in relief during a game in Houston on June 5.
The AL West Title Is on the Line
Houston and Texas will settle the AL West title during the final weekend, with both teams standing at 78-80. Because neither club can fall back on capturing the AL’s last wild card spot, this series determines who takes the division.
Houston holds the tiebreaker over Texas because the Astros won the season series 9-4. The Astros are the -280 favorite with the Rangers at +230, and both teams lost Wednesday.
The Texas Rangers end their season with three games at Minnesota, which has been eliminated, following today’s road contest against the New York Mets. Houston is currently in the midst of a four-game series.
The Worst Astros Team Since 2014
This is the worst Astros team since 2014, even with Yordan Alvarez putting up an AL MVP season. Alvarez trails AL RBI leader Pete Alonso of Baltimore by eight in the Triple Crown race.
41 shares the home run lead with Alvarez, while he sits atop the batting average list at .316. The lineup might be short a shortstop and customary leadoff hitter, Jeremy Pena, who was hit by a pitch on his wrist Tuesday and did not start Wednesday. He managed to steal a base as a pinch-runner.
Houston is not in position to win the AL West without 29-year-old Peter Lambert, who was utterly terrible from 2019-24 with Colorado and did not pitch at all in 2025. He leads Astros starts in most categories.
This month, Lambert has posted a decent 3.93 ERA but carries a 0-3 record, and he has not personally won since July 11. Across those 12 starts, his record stands at 0-5 with a 4.43 ERA.
His lone 2026 outing vs. the Athletics came on June 5 in Houston, where he gave up one run over 5.1 innings. The model forecasts him at 5.7 innings, 5.5 strikeouts, 5.0 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs.
Josh Hader’s Big Night
Stellar Astros closer Josh Hader is surely not available after throwing a whopping 41 pitches in Wednesday’s loss to the Mariners. That is not ideal, certainly, but everything else points Houston’s way.
The model has Astros by a score of 5.1-4.8. If they combine for 14 runs, so be it and I’ll just take the money line win.
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| Team | Record | Final Weekend Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Houston | 78-80 | Four-game set against Athletics |
| Texas | 78-80 | Three games at eliminated Minnesota |
| New York Mets | — | Today’s road game against Texas |
What This Means for the Playoffs
With the AL West title at stake, there can be no fallback option for the team that falls short. Houston owns the tiebreaker over Texas with a 78-80 record.
The model’s 5.1-4.8 forecast suggests a low-scoring affair. The winds blowing out at Sutter Health Park could push the total higher, but the Under 11 is drawing decent action regardless.
The final Thursday of the season has arrived, and the selection is Houston on the money line. Pairing that with the Alt Under 14 creates the same-game parlay. Go with it.
Source material: “Astros vs. Athletics MLB picks: Schedule-makers handed Houston a final-weekend gift starting Thursday,” CBS Sports.
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