No. 18 Michigan hosts No. 17 Iowa on Saturday at Michigan Stadium, and the pick says the Hawkeyes are the team to finally make the Wolverines pay. Iowa’s running back Kamari Moulton and wide receiver Tony Diaz form one of the best RB-WR combos of the past 20 years, and they will make just enough explosive plays to pull off the upset in the Big House.
Key Facts Box
– Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sept. 26
– TV: CBS; live stream on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App
– Spread: Iowa +178
– Model record: 22-19 on top-rated CFB picks this season
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, with a live stream available on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App. SportsLine’s model has simulated every Week 4 college football game 10,000 times, and it backs Iowa +178.
What Happened Last Week
Last week, Michigan managed to overcome another sluggish beginning, eventually taking control of the game against UTEP after falling behind early. The team pulled away to win 52-17, which marked the first contest all season decided by more than a single score. The result moved the program’s record to 3-0.
The defensive unit has already established itself as a dominant presence, while the offense has started to show promising signs under newly appointed starter Hank Brown. With the Auburn transfer at the helm, he has completed 73% of his passes, thrown three touchdowns, and recorded zero interceptions.
Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa were both non-power opponents, and Iowa crushed them by a combined 95-0. A late comeback against Iowa State produced a 16-13 result. The defense has dominated, while the offense has shown promise under newly appointed starter Hank Brown. The Auburn transfer has completed 73% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
A Long Gap Between These Teams
The Wolverines and the Hawkeyes haven’t met since the Jim Harbaugh era reached its peak, with the Wolverines winning 26-0 on their way to a national championship. The Hawkeyes have lost four games in a row across all competitions — including two defeats in the Big Ten title game. Their most recent victory at Michigan came on Oct. 16, 2010, with Ricky Stanzi serving as the Hawkeyes’ quarterback.
The Quarterback Situation
In his first two games, Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood struggled badly, failing to reach 55% completion. Things changed gradually over time, though, and Underwood began to resemble the quarterback everyone had expected during a 52-17 victory against UTEP.
Five consecutive scoring drives came from Underwood after a fumble by running back Savion Hiter, with a field goal drive taking just 29 seconds to give his team the lead at halftime. The sophomore finished with a completion rate of 76%, throwing for 223 yards and two touchdowns.
The Wolverines need that version of Bryce against Iowa.
Iowa’s Explosive Weapon
The Hawkeyes aren’t known for big offensive numbers, but they’ve been challenging downfield in the passing game at a higher level thanks to transfer wide receiver Tony Diaz. The sophomore arrived in Iowa City from UTRGV, a second-year program in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and he’s already brought a dynamic element to the offense.
Across two FBS matchups, Diaz hauled in 15 catches for 179 yards and a touchdown. His 201 yards on the campaign already approach the team’s top wide receiver total from the whole 2025 season (278 yards, 1 TD).
Transfers From Utah Helped Michigan
A small number of players moved to Michigan from Kyle Whittingham’s former stop at Utah have already made big marks on the field through the first several games. Among them, wide receiver J.J. Buchanan has stood out most, with 266 yards receiving, including the disputed game-winning Hail Mary against Western Michigan.
John Henry Daley leads the team’s pass rush, ranking third in the Big Ten with 2.5 sacks. Cornerback Smith Snowden didn’t give up a reception against Oklahoma while playing 42 snaps in coverage. Together, they’ve helped steady the roster.
The Model’s Record
SportsLine’s model has gone 22-19 on top-rated CFB picks this season.
| Game | Date | Time | Channel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan vs. Iowa | Saturday, Sept. 26 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS |
CBS will broadcast the game at 3:30 p.m. ET, with Michigan sitting atop the rankings at No. 18 and Iowa occupying the No. 17 spot. The Hawkeyes are listed at +178 to cover, while SportsLine’s model holds a record of 22-19 on its top-rated college football picks so far this season.
The Model’s Confidence
The pick rests on a specific matchup argument — Iowa’s Diaz and Moulton combo versus Michigan’s young quarterback and transfer-stabilized roster — rather than generic hype. Michigan has lived on borrowed time all season, including the stunning Hail Mary against Western Michigan.
The Hawkeyes will be the ones who finally make them pay, and the numbers back that prediction.
Source material: “Michigan vs. Iowa prediction, pick, odds, spread: Wolverines host Hawkeyes in ranked Big Ten clash,” CBS Sports.
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