The NFL’s Week 3 slate opens with a surprise: the Atlanta Falcons walked into Lambeau Field and dropped 35 points on the Green Bay Packers, earning their first win of the season with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback. Anything can happen once the games kick off, and the betting community is scrambling to catch up.
Injuries have ravaged the quarterback position in particular, and DraftKings Sportsbook has released its picks for Week 3. Here are the five best bets for the week, plus picks for every game on the board.
Bills Cover Over Struggling Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers have dropped back-to-back games they should have won, according to the analysis. They are the first team ever to start 0-2, with both losses coming against teams that lost 14 or more games the previous season. Jim Harbaugh’s defense let Kirk Cousins throw for 253 yards and three touchdowns, and now Justin Herbert faces a freight train in Josh Allen.
Allen has nine touchdowns through two games and is on an MVP trajectory. Herbert, meanwhile, is being pressured at the second-highest rate in the NFL (46%) despite being blitzed at the fifth-lowest rate (23%). He has struggled on deep throws, managing one touchdown and three interceptions on passes that traveled 10-plus air yards.
The pick: Bills -7, with a projected score of Bills 31, Chargers 20.
Lions Cover Against Jets in Shootout Spot
The Jets have cashed both times we backed them recently — straight up in Week 1 and ATS in Week 2. Now the line sits below a touchdown, and the pick goes the other way. Detroit has put up at least 30 points in each of its last two games, and both contests turned into track meets.
New York’s defense has allowed just 65.5 rushing yards per game over the first two weeks, second-lowest in the NFL. But Jahmyr Gibbs is a different animal than the backs the Lions have faced so far, and the defense’s struggles — 35.5 points allowed per game, 457.5 total yards per game, both 31st in the NFL — raise questions.
Detroit is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss, though. If this turns into a shootout, the Lions’ weapons outnumber the Jets’.
The pick: Lions -6.5, with a projected score of Lions 33, Jets 21.
Chiefs Cover Over Dolphins in Road Favorite Streak
The Chiefs have never covered a game as a double-digit road favorite since 1970. In 11 prior instances, they are 0-10-1 ATS. That streak ends in Week 3.
Patrick Mahomes looked sharp against the Colts, completing 32-of-47 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III has provided a much-needed burst out of the backfield. Against a Dolphins team that nearly lost by two touchdowns on the road last week, the pick is simple.
Brock Purdy sliced up the Dolphins’ secondary, missing just two of his 22 pass attempts in a 35-13 loss. Andy Reid will target the same weakness with his star QB-TE duo of Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
The pick: Chiefs -10.5, with a projected score of Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16.
Seahawks Cover Over Commanders Without Daniels
The Commanders’ quarterback situation has been battered by injuries. Their starter, Daniels, is sidelined with an elbow dislocation, leaving Marcus Mariota to start. Mariota has lost six of his last seven starts, and the veteran has a hard time putting up points against this Seattle defense.
The Seahawks come in allowing just 17 total points over the first two games. This is a pick built on the idea that the Commanders simply cannot score enough to keep pace.
The pick: Seahawks -1, with a projected score of Seahawks 28, Commanders 17.
Raiders Suffer First Loss in Week 3
The remaining games on the slate include the Raiders, who are the pick to lose for the first time this season.
The picks are:
- Bills -7 over Chargers
- Lions -6.5 over Jets
- Chiefs -10.5 over Dolphins
- Seahawks -1 over Commanders
- Raiders lose for the first time this season
The key numbers:
- Bills spread: -7
- Lions spread: -6.5
- Chiefs spread: -10.5
- Seahawks spread: -1
Settle in, gear up, and get ready for another week of NFL action.
Source material: “Last-minute best bets for NFL Week 3: Seahawks cruise in Sam Darnold's return, Raiders suffer first loss,” CBS Sports.
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