Bill Maher credits Trump, whom he calls a “f–k around and find out” or “badass” president, with a steep drop in crime during his “Real Time with Bill Maher” show on HBO. The comedian argued that the decline applies to all crime, not just drug crime, and pointed to two main reasons: the surveillance state and Democrats expanding the safety net.
Maher displayed an Atlantic magazine headline about the “Great Crime Decline,” noting that violent crime dropped to its lowest level in 2025 since 1969 according to FBI data. The decline began in 2022 during the Biden administration and continued into Trump’s presidency. The Atlantic headline read: “The Great Crime Decline.” Maher used it as visual evidence of the trend he was discussing.
The Numbers Behind the Drop
The Atlantic article cites several factors behind the decline:
- Police methods in cities like Baltimore
- Low unemployment
- Federal pandemic-era investments in state and local government
Maher quoted the FBI data showing post-recession and post-pandemic drops in big cities down to 1950s and 1960s levels. He displayed the Atlantic headline during his monologue.
The Surveillance State Argument
Maher argued that part of the reason for the drop is the surveillance state. He said, “you can’t move two inches in America without being tracked, photographed, and followed by a flock camera.”
He also credited Democrats expanding the safety net, saying it reduces desperation. His argument ties the two together: fewer desperate people plus constant surveillance equals fewer crimes.
Trump’s UFC Fights and the Lawn Message
Maher joked that Trump’s UFC fights on the lawn sent a message to criminals. He said, “I think the bad guys got the message.”
The joke was lighthearted, but the underlying claim was serious: Trump’s combative public image, including his mixed martial arts bouts, had a deterrent effect. Maher framed the decline as a consequence of Trump’s approach to leadership.
The Political Stakes
The timing matters. The decline started under Biden but accelerated under Trump. Maher’s framing puts the credit squarely on the current president, even though the trend began before he took office.
Surveillance and Safety Nets
Maher’s embrace of the surveillance state is a sharp contrast with his usual positions. This monologue suggests those concerns have shifted.
He did not offer a critique of the technology or its costs. He simply noted that it exists and that it helps keep crime down. That is a notable pivot for a host who has spent years warning about government power.
He also credited Democrats expanding the safety net, saying it reduces desperation. The two arguments work together: fewer desperate people plus constant surveillance equals fewer crimes.
What the Numbers Show
The FBI data shows a clear pattern. Violent crime declined sharply in major cities following the recession and the pandemic. By 2025, it reached its lowest level since 1969.
The Atlantic article points to multiple causes, including police tactics, economic conditions, and federal spending. The data does not assign blame to any one factor. It simply records what happened.
Maher’s monologue adds a political layer. He named Trump as the cause, even though the trend began before Trump took office.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither the surveillance state nor Democrats expanding the safety net as explanations for falling crime, and instead backs citizens and local groups pushing back against both. The decline is real, but the explanations offered by Maher point in directions the paper opposes.
The surveillance state has been built up by companies that sell cameras and data to governments, and by offices that gather power for themselves. The paper has always opposed that drift, and Maher’s own past criticism of government power makes his embrace of it notable. The safety net argument rests on the idea that more spending will reduce crime, which the paper has also criticized elsewhere as a solution that does not address the root causes.
The paper would want crime explained by better policing, smarter use of resources, and stronger communities rather than by surveillance technology or more spending. It wants citizens to push back against both, not to accept either as settled policy.
Key Facts Box
- Crime decline: Violent crime dropped to its lowest level in 2025 since 1969
- Data source: FBI figures, displayed via an Atlantic magazine headline
- Start of decline: 2022, during the Biden administration
- Continued into: Trump’s presidency
- Factors cited: Police methods in Baltimore, low unemployment, pandemic-era federal investments
- Big cities: Post-recession and post-pandemic drops to 1950s and 1960s levels
The Bottom Line
Maher’s monologue was a shift in his usual territory. He stepped outside his usual territory to credit Trump on a topic where the president has struggled. The numbers back the claim, but the framing is political.
The surveillance state argument is the more interesting one. Maher is usually the loudest voice against government intrusion. Here, he celebrates it. That shift tells you something about how he sees the world right now.
The crime decline is real. The debate over who deserves credit for it is just beginning.
Source material: “Bill Maher credits ‘f–k around and find out president’ Trump for steep drop in crime,” the New York Post.
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