The Phillies and Braves open their NL Wild-Card Round Tuesday at Truist Park, and the pick is Atlanta. The game starts at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, with the Braves listed at -199 via DraftKings, taking 79% of handle and 91% of bets. The total of 6.5 is leaning Under.
This is the third time in five years these teams have met in the playoffs. Philadelphia won both the 2023 and 2022 NLDS in four games each, sweeping Atlanta both times. The Phillies also won the only other postseason matchup in 1993. That 2023 Atlanta team led the majors in regular-season wins with 104, and the Braves had home-field advantage in both series.
The Braves’ Pitching Edge
Chris Sale will take the mound for Atlanta’s Game 1, carrying a resume that mixes excellence with playoff struggles. The left-hander captured the 2024 NL Cy Young Award, but he has not appeared in the postseason since 2021, when he was with Boston. His career playoff numbers show a pitcher who has struggled at times, posting a 1-3 record with a 6.35 ERA across 10 appearances covering 34.1 innings, including a 7.24 ERA in seven starts. In four of his nine postseason appearances, he did not complete five innings.
Sale delivered an outstanding season, finishing with a 14-9 record, a 2.16 ERA, 200 strikeouts (T-11 in the majors), and a 0.98 WHIP (fifth in the league). Against the Phillies specifically, he went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA, fanned 29 batters in 26 innings, and limited opposing hitters to a collective .167 average.
“He faces a Phillies lineup that could not hit at all in September, ranking 29th batting average (.226), slugging percentage (.356), OPS (.660) and runs per game (3.71).”
The forecast calls for the pitcher to last 5.9 innings while striking out 7.3 batters, allowing 5.2 hits and giving up 2.0 earned runs.
A Mixed Bag for Philadelphia
The Phillies are piecing together their pitching staff, and rookie Andrew Painter appears to be the main arm they’ll lean on. His regular season numbers were modest: a record of 3-10 with a 5.40 ERA. Against Atlanta, though, his record improves to 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA and a .323 opponents’ batting average across three starts. He showed better form in September, posting a 3.49 ERA, and delivered a quality start last Thursday against Milwaukee.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is 3-for-9 with a homer off Painter, and Michael Harris is 5-for-6 with a homer and double. The Phillies’ Luis Arraez played in seven of the 13 games in the regular-season series but hit only .250. Arraez was leading the NL in average until he sprained his left ankle Thursday and hasn’t played since. He is not on the WC roster.
Wheeler’s Absence
Zack Wheeler would have started Game 1. Instead, he was used for most of the Phillies’ season finale Sunday, when Philadelphia snapped a six-game losing streak to claim the NL’s final Wild Card spot over Arizona. Wheeler is from Atlanta.
Sunday marked Jesús Luzardo’s return from the injured list, and he faced live hitters for the first time since Sept. 7. His outing required just four pitches to record three outs, a performance that made it possible for him to open the game here. Luzardo carries a set Over/Under total of 2.5 strikeouts, even though no Over/Under outs are recorded at DK.
Kyle Schwarber hit five dingers in the season series with 10 RBI, tying with the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstong for the big-league lead with 45 homers. Schwarber’s 23 career playoff homers tie for third-most in MLB history.
The Pick
The model has the Braves by a score of 3.7-3.4. Short of a grand upset, Atlanta looks like the better team on paper.
Key Facts Box
– Game: Phillies vs. Braves NL Wild-Card Game 1
– Date: Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET
– Location: Truist Park, NBC
– Total: 6.5, Under leaning
– ML: Braves -199, taking 79% of handle, 91% of bets
– Series line: Braves -125, Phillies +105
– Over/Under: 2.5 games, Over slight favorite
– DraftKings SGP price: +124 (subject to change)
The pick is Atlanta.
Source material: “Phillies vs. Braves NL Wild-Card Game 1 picks: Atlanta appears to have major pitching edge behind Chris Sale,” CBS Sports.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.