Week 4 Fantasy Football projection risers and fallers: Adjusting for the loss of De’Von Achane, Breece Hall. That’s the headline, and the news is that three starting running backs went down early in Week 3 games. De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne all left their games, and as of Monday, it looks like Achane is the only one whose season may be over. The other two are not expected to play in Week 4. The catch: the guys who will replace them are not exactly confidence-inspiring.
Before every game, the Fantasy community spends its time guessing which player will get the ball next. This week, that guess is more difficult than usual. The projections remain under review, and the tight end position is acting unpredictably. Twelve tight ends average at least 12 PPR Fantasy points per game, with another five averaging double digits. Last week, Dalton Schultz proved that a drafted starter can fall short, and the guidance is plain: Kyle Pitts, Colston Loveland, and Dallas Goedert are the tight ends nobody wants to start this week.
The Running Back Situation
The Jets sounded more optimistic on Monday about Breece Hall’s injury than they did on Sunday. That optimism is not translating into a projection that Hall plays. Braelon Allen projects as a top 20 back with 19 touches and 12.3 PPR Fantasy points. Isaiah Davis will likely work in on passing downs, but Allen is the clear lead rusher. The Bears defense gave up 4.9 yards per carry in the first two weeks, and the game script could be positive if the Bears’ backup QBs struggle. Allen is probably the top waiver wire add in Week 4, but he is not a rest-of-season solution.
Jaylen Wright was not on the field for Ollie Gordon’s heavy workload in Week 3, and Wright has not been ruled out for Week 4. On Monday, Gordon remains projected for 18 inefficient touches, which places him at the top of the flex ranks. The Dolphins face the Vikings this week with an implied total of 14 points, a difficult offense to run behind. Gordon could settle into a rest-of-season role, but Wright’s status casts doubt over everything.
Projecting the Saints’ running back situation is the most difficult. Kendre Miller is the younger back, and by design, he handles more work in early downs while Alvin Kamara controls passing downs. In Week 3, Kamara led Miller in early down work, yet Miller actually received more targets. At 31 years old, Kamara has posted one of the lowest efficiency ratings in football this season, with 63 yards on 24 touches. The current projection still ranks Kamara above Miller, both as flexes behind Gordon, but the guidance is clear: no one should be blamed for wanting to add the younger back and hoping Kellen Moore decides to run with him.
Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks
The selection of Jordan Addison carries significant risk. We do not expect Justin Jefferson to play in Week 4, and that absence had a major effect on Addison’s performance last week. He received a 36% share of targets and amassed 151 air yards. His upcoming matchup against the Dolphins’ weak defense is favorable. The current projection is moving slowly to account for the boost, assuming Jefferson remains sidelined, which places Addison at a boom/bust WR3 ranking for now. By the end of the week, he could rise into the top 24.
Jones carries a larger name and a superior matchup. Last week, he accounted for 24% of his targets, and he has handled 78% of the team’s rushing attempts over the last two games since Jordan Mason was not around. His Vikings sit as an 11-point favorite against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the most Fantasy points to running backs through three weeks. Jones projects as a top 10 running back above several backs that were selected five-plus rounds ahead of him. The guidance is straightforward: start him if you own him, but confirm he is not sitting on another person’s bench. Trading for him as a substitute for Achane, Hall, or Etienne makes sense.
Love is the quarterback who finally received the keys from the Cardinals. The team entrusted him with the starting job in Week 3, and he converted 26 touches into 21.9 PPR Fantasy points. There is no going back now, particularly with a Giants defense that has been weakened by injuries. He should be started in every format.
“It looks pretty hilarious to see Shough projected as QB2 this week, I admit.”
Kellen Moore has leaned into Tyler Shough’s pass-heavy approach, even though Shough is the third-string quarterback for the season and leads the NFL in passing attempts. Without Etienne, he may throw at a 70% rate. This week, less than one Fantasy point separates QB2 from QB7, and Shough projected to land right in that mix in Week 3. The projection is not a joke, but it is a wager on a coach’s hunch.
Tight Ends and the Fallers
The biggest tight end riser is Tyler Higbee. Projections indicate Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson, and Colby Parkinson all miss Week 4, which opens up a 20% share of targets for Higbee. He already put up strong numbers against the Broncos on Sunday night. Matthew Stafford has connected with tight ends on 33% of his throws through three weeks, and Higbee should top that group again in Week 4.
The big drops are less severe than expected. The standout performer is Drake Maye, the Patriots quarterback. He tops the NFL with six interceptions, a jump from eight thrown all of last season. He averages 195 yards passing per game and has one passing touchdown. There is still hope he snaps out of it eventually, yet the projections remain guarded. Use him if your lineup demands it, but the safer bets lie elsewhere.
What the Numbers Look Like
- Running backs: Braelon Allen (19 touches, 12.3 PPR), Ollie Gordon (18 inefficient touches), Alvin Kamara (63 yards on 24 touches)
- Wide receivers: Jordan Addison (36% target share, 151 air yards), Aaron Jones (24% target share)
- Quarterbacks: Tyler Shough (QB3 on the season, leads NFL in attempts)
- Tight ends: Tyler Higbee (20% target share projected)
The tight end position is the wild card. Twelve players average at least 12 PPR points per game, and another five average double digits. Dalton Schultz showed last week that a drafted starter can fail to deliver, and the advice is blunt: Kyle Pitts, Colston Loveland, and Dallas Goedert are the tight ends nobody wants to start this week.
The Picks to Watch
The picks worth watching are the risers. Braelon Allen is the top player to add from the waiver wire in Week 4, though he does not become a season-long solution. Ollie Gordon is a strong flex option on a worse offense, with his Dolphins holding an implied total of 14 points. Jeremiyah Love is the player who finally took over, and the projection is that he starts everywhere. Jordan Addison is the boom/bust WR3 who could be top 24 by the end of the week. Aaron Jones is a top 10 running back ahead of backs drafted five-plus rounds higher than him. Tyler Higbee is the biggest riser at tight end.
Drake Maye’s interceptions are the warning sign here. He leads the league with six interceptions after tossing eight last year, and he is currently averaging 195 yards per game while managing just one passing touchdown. The hope is that he will shake this slump eventually, but for now, the projections are cautious. You’ll need to see it to believe it.
These projections are intended as guidance rather than an order. The tight end pool is deep, yet the established starters are failing to deliver. The backups stepping in for Achane, Hall, and Etienne lack track records, and those projections show it. The week has barely begun, so the numbers will shift. For now, the message remains simple: trust the projections and watch the waiver wire closely.
Source material: “Week 4 Fantasy Football projection risers and fallers: Adjusting for the loss of De'Von Achane, Breece Hall,” CBS Sports.
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