Bitcoin is on track for a third straight month of gains, and that would break a decade-long pattern the market has followed since 2013. The cryptocurrency is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August, and with two trading days left, a positive close would mark the first time an August gain has been followed by a September gain since 2013.
The streak to beat is simple: every previous positive August has been followed by a negative September. Bitcoin has never managed three consecutive monthly gains from July through September, and it has not posted a positive quarter since Q3 2025. A third straight gain this month would change that record entirely.
The Numbers Behind the Streak
Bitcoin’s September performance is being watched closely because of what follows it. Since 2013, the market has spent September giving back what August gained, and this month’s 7% rise threatens to end that pattern.
A positive September close would leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest period, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,000, but the broader economic picture remains unsettled.
Bond yields are rising globally, with the U.S. 10-year yield above 5.2%. The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year-to-date highs. Oil prices are holding above $90 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
What the Fourth Quarter Holds
The fourth quarter will not be quiet. Two major events could test bitcoin’s momentum.
Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing. The offering’s timing and size have not been finalized, so the exact impact is still unknown. Investors will watch closely to see whether the IPO draws money away from crypto or toward it.
The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.
The Pattern at Risk
The pattern being threatened is a long-running one. Since 2013, every August gain has been followed by a September loss. This month’s 7% rise is testing that record directly.
A third straight monthly gain from July through September would be new territory for bitcoin. The market has not sustained that kind of momentum in recent years, and the fact that it is even close to doing so now carries weight.
The stakes are not small. A positive quarter after Q3 2025 would mark a return to positive territory for bitcoin’s quarterly performance.
Why the Pattern Matters
The pattern matters because it tells you something about how bitcoin trades. A positive August followed by a September loss has become the expected result, and breaking that pattern means the market is behaving differently.
A positive September close would be the first such close since 2013, and that is a long time for a pattern to hold. The fact that it is about to be broken is notable in itself.
The Macro Picture
The broader economic picture is not favorable for risk assets generally. Bond yields are rising globally, with the U.S. 10-year yield above 5.2%. The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year-to-date highs. Oil prices are holding above $90 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
A positive September close would be the first to follow a positive August since 2013.
Whether that pressure helps or hurts bitcoin depends on how investors interpret the signals around them.
What Comes Next
The next two days will settle the September question. A positive close would confirm the break, and the fourth quarter will then test whether bitcoin can sustain its momentum through November.
Anthropic’s IPO plans and the midterm elections are the two events that could unsettle the market in Q4. Neither is guaranteed to move bitcoin one way or the other, but both carry enough weight to produce volatility.
The pattern being threatened is a long-running one, and breaking it would be notable. Bitcoin has not sustained three consecutive monthly gains from July through September, and the fact that it is close to doing so now carries weight.
Whether the streak holds or breaks, the fourth quarter will be the stage for the answer.
Source material: “Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge,” CoinDesk.
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