The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced next week on Thursday, October 8, and Ladbrokes has posted the bookmakers’ odds for who will win. The prize comes with 12.0 million Swedish kronor (SEK), or about 1.2 million dollars, plus a lifetime of fame. But the odds also come with opinions from the source, and those opinions are the real entertainment.
Odds at a Glance
Here is how the top of the list looks:
| Writer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Can Xue | 10/1 |
| Haruki Murakami | 14/1 |
| Gerald Murnane | 16/1 |
| Thomas Pynchon | 16/1 |
| Cristina Rivera Garza | 20/1 |
The list then drops off to 25/1 for a large group of writers, with a final tier at 33/1 and 50/1. J.K. Rowling sits at 50/1 alongside Louise Erdrich and Yoko Tawada, which the source calls “a travesty.”
Last Year’s Winner
Last year’s winner, László Krasznahorkai, had odds of 6 to 1 at this time last year. Nobody is favored that heavily this year, though Can Xue is back on top after falling out of the top 5 in 2025. The source asks whether this is finally Xue’s year. Gerald Murnane, meanwhile, continues to lurk at 16/1. Both could be the ones.
Who Gets Short Shrift
The source is blunt about some heavyweights. Murakami, Pynchon, and Atwood are all too high and will never win. That is a strong call from someone who just named Atwood at 20/1.
J.K. Rowling shares odds with Erdrich and Tawada at 50/1, which the source calls “a travesty.” The source also suggests Alexis Wright would be a good choice, though she sits at 25/1.
The Long Shots
The 33/1 and 50/1 tiers are where the real surprise picks live. Bushra al-Maqtari, Robert Macfarlane, and Ivan Vladislavić all sit at 33/1. Ali Smith, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, and Xiaolu Guo all sit at 50/1.
There is also a 40/1 tier, where Joy Harjo, Linton Kwesi Johnson, and Marilynne Robinson all appear.
The Source’s Own Judgment
The source’s commentary adds a layer of color. They note that the odds are not necessarily accurate, and they freely admit nobody knows anything about who will actually win. That honesty is part of the charm.
The source’s own judgments are worth reading closely. They ask whether this is finally Can Xue’s year, and they suggest Alexis Wright would be a good choice.
The Final Word
The list is a reminder that the Nobel Prize in Literature is a deeply subjective award. The winner is often a surprise to everyone except the lucky writer.
For now, the betting markets offer a snapshot of who critics, readers, and gamblers think deserves the honor. Can Xue is the favorite, Murakami is the biggest name in the top half, and Murnane remains the quiet threat.
The prize will be announced next Thursday. Until then, the odds are just a game. The source’s own admission that nobody knows anything is worth keeping in mind as you place your bets.
Source material: “Here are the bookies’ odds for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature.,” Literary Hub.
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