Turkey is signing deals and building bases across the Middle East, and the signal is clear: it wants to replace the United States as the region’s main outside power. The latest move came on Aug. 7, when leaders from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement at a palace overlooking the Grand Mosque in Mecca. The accord includes NATO’s Article 5-style language, committing the three Sunni Muslim states to treat any armed attack on one as an attack on all, plus a commitment to exchange intelligence and defense technology.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara was a main driver of the three-year-long talks. The agreement combines Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth, Turkey’s growing defense might — NATO’s second largest military — and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. Analysts say the deal reflects Turkey’s vision of establishing itself as a central player in the Middle East, a region rocked by years of war.
Defense Build-Up
Turkey’s defense-industrial base reduces its dependence on the West militarily. It still seeks F-35 jets from Washington, a reminder that full independence remains a goal, not a reality. Turkey has bases in Somalia, Qatar, Libya and is shaping Syria as it emerges from a decade of civil war. Its TV shows are watched across the region, and it builds schools across the region to gain influence.
Turkey has cast itself as a mediator in global conflicts, including Ukraine and Iran. The region has been hit by profound shocks starting with the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and continuing with the seven-month-old U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Iran is described as defiant but diminished, with its proxy network across Syria and Lebanon in ruins.
There’s growing talk in Washington of reducing the U.S. Middle East security footprint after the war. Turkey’s position fits that shift. It wants to fill the vacuum, and it has the ambition to try.
Economic Struggles
Turkey faces obstacles including years of economic mismanagement, persistent high inflation, a weak currency and rising energy import costs. Its biggest challenge may come from an increasingly assertive and aggressive Israel. That tension is direct and growing.
Asli Aydintasbas, director of The Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, says Turkey’s regional ambitions exceed its current economic means but that Ankara isn’t militarily or strategically weak. Aydintasbas says Ankara understands it hasn’t translated growing influence into a Turkish-led order beyond its immediate periphery.
Turkey sees itself as the region’s “big brother” and believes the Ottoman Empire offered a better model of governance than the nation-states that replaced it. Aydintasbas describes Turkish foreign policy as restrained and realistic, tempered by economic struggles.
She says Turkey understands the region is likely entering a post-U.S. phase after the war with Iran and is playing the long game. Without a clear U.S. win, U.S. influence will decline and Turkey will step in.
Israel’s War on Gaza
President Trump has overseen a drawdown of U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq. Israel’s strategy in the region after the Hamas attacks that killed almost 1,200 people is called “mowing the lawn” by Aydintasbas, a term borrowed from the Israeli military.
This means keeping neighbors militarily suppressed, giving Israel freedom of action and preventing any power from rising enough to challenge Israel. Israel now controls the southern part of Syria and shows no signs of ceding it.
Eldad Ben Aharon, a senior analyst, notes Israel and Turkey previously didn’t compete in regional aspirations. That is changing fast. The two countries now appear to be moving into the same space, and the competition is bound to get sharper.
What Comes Next
The timing is telling. As the U.S. signals a smaller Middle East footprint, Turkey is ready to step in. The Mecca agreement is the clearest evidence yet of how that plan is taking shape.
The deal brings together three Sunni Muslim states with very different strengths. Saudi Arabia brings the money. Pakistan brings the bombs. Turkey brings the bases and the ambition.
The question the region faces is whether Turkey can deliver on its promises. Aydintasbas says the country isn’t militarily or strategically weak, but she also says its ambitions exceed its means. That gap is the real test.
Here’s how the pieces line up:
- Turkey’s defense build-up reduces its dependence on the West.
- The Mecca agreement commits three Sunni states to mutual defense.
- Israel’s “mowing the lawn” strategy suppresses neighbors.
- The U.S. footprint is shrinking, and Turkey wants to fill it.
The Long Game
Turkey’s position is simple: it wants to be the center of gravity in the Middle East, the country that other nations look to for leadership. The idea of returning to that kind of influence is central to how Turkish leaders see themselves.
The region is entering a post-U.S. phase, according to Aydintasbas, and Turkey is playing the long game to be ready when that moment arrives. Whether it can sustain that role over time is another matter entirely.
The war in Gaza and the broader conflict with Iran have reshaped the region’s balance of power. The U.S. is drawing down its forces, and Turkey is moving in. The question is whether Turkey can actually deliver on its promises, given the economic problems Aydintasbas points to.
The answer is not yet known. What is clear is that Turkey is positioning itself for a bigger role, and the Mecca agreement is the clearest signal yet of how serious that intention is.
| Event | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed | Aug. 7 | Palace overlooking the Grand Mosque in Mecca |
| Hamas-led attack on Israel | Oct. 7, 2023 | Israel |
| U.S.-Israeli war on Iran | Ongoing | Middle East |
| Trump’s troop drawdown | Ongoing | Syria and Iraq |
The region is changing fast. Turkey is trying to shape that change in its own image. Whether it succeeds depends on whether its ambitions can match its resources.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs none of the deal’s signatories and is against the kind of regional alliance that would put American interests at risk, instead favoring open diplomacy and free trade with every nation. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is a step toward a closed regional bloc, and the paper is against that kind of arrangement.
The paper supports the deal over the standoff because it is against foreign entanglements and trade wars alike. But it does not back this deal. The accord’s Article 5-style language and intelligence-sharing commitments point to a regional alliance that could work against American interests, and the paper opposes such arrangements.
The paper wants the U.S. to focus at home while keeping channels open for trade, diplomacy and compromise. It wants to avoid concentrations of power, whether in government or business. Turkey’s ambition to replace the United States as the region’s main outside power is a warning sign, not a reason to jump aboard. The reader should watch for the gap Aydintasbas identifies: Turkey’s ambitions exceed its means.
Source material: “As the U.S. signals a smaller Middle East footprint, Turkey is ready to step in,” NPR.
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