Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) is making Trump’s record central to his reelection case as Democrats target Virginia’s 5th Congressional District in the 2026 election. The district was previously rated “Solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report but was recently changed to “Likely Republican.”
Trump won the district by roughly 12 percentage points in 2024; Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears carried it by about 8 points in 2025. Former Rep. Tom Perriello, who narrowly won the seat in 2008 before losing reelection two years later, is running again.
McGuire’s Trump Record
McGuire cites border security, tax cuts, manufacturing investment, and a claimed drop in crime and drug trafficking as Trump’s accomplishments. He says the country’s murder rate is at a 126-year low and points to falling fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking as evidence of effective border and law enforcement policies.
He describes China as the most significant strategic threat and claims if Xi Jinping banned fentanyl, there would be no more of it, noting much precursor material originates in China. His American Dream Act would offer a five-year capital-gains tax exemption for homeowners 65 and older selling to first-time buyers.
Almost all young people he surveyed under 30 said they did not own homes, nor did anyone they graduated with.
Perriello’s Shift
Perriello frames the district as shifting from a “July Fourth popsicle” to “shattered glass,” with voters questioning party loyalty. He argues voters care more about family than party affiliation and focuses on healthcare and the cost of living.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified Perriello as a top-tier candidate for its effort to win back the House.
The Endorsement Debate
McGuire calls Perriello a “flip-flopper” and says he got “fired” when Perriello lost reelection. McGuire accuses Perriello of changing positions on abortion and guns between his 2008 congressional run and later campaigns.
“Fired”
That line from McGuire captures the core of the race: a sitting Republican making Trump’s record central to his case while his challenger argues the district has moved past loyalty to party labels.
What Changed the District
The district’s shift from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” reflects a broader national dynamic where Trump’s standing shapes even safe seats. Perriello’s decision to run again after narrowly winning in 2008 and losing reelection two years later gives Democrats a familiar face in a district that has grown more competitive.
Key Numbers
- Trump won the district by roughly 12 percentage points in 2024.
- Winsome Earle-Sears carried the district by about 8 points in 2025.
- The murder rate is at a 126-year low, according to McGuire.
- The district went from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the Cook Political Report’s rating.
Why This Race Matters
Virginia’s 5th District has not been considered competitive. The Cook Political Report’s downgrade signals that the district has become a closer call.
McGuire is betting that Trump’s popularity carries him through. Perriello is betting that voters want results on healthcare and the cost of living, not party loyalty.
The Race’s Stakes
The race will show which message travels farther.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs Rep. John McGuire’s focus on individual freedom and small business over party identity, and is against treating the race as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. The shift in the district’s Cook Political Report rating from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” is a warning sign for both sides, not a reason to cheer either machine’s next move.
McGuire’s emphasis on border security, tax cuts, manufacturing investment, and crime reduction lines up with the paper’s north star of individual freedom and small business. His American Dream Act offers a targeted tax break for older homeowners selling to first-time buyers, and his survey finding that almost all young people under 30 do not own homes points to a real problem.
Perriello’s framing of the district as “shattered glass” — voters questioning party loyalty — is a warning to both parties. The paper agrees with Perriello that voters care more about family than party labels, and that healthcare and the cost of living matter more than any machine’s slogan. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s top-tier designation for Perriello shows the national game wants a fighter, not a loyalist.
Source material: “John McGuire touts his Trump endorsement as safe red seat suddenly looks shakier,” the Washington Examiner.
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