Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General running for the GOP Senate seat, told conservative donors and lobbyists that the party’s midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month hurt Republican polling. Audio obtained by the New York Times documents the admission, which contradicts the public pushback from his campaign.
According to the audio, Paxton said, “To be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped.” He added, “Right now, yeah, not good.”
Paxton’s Admission
Paxton spoke in private to a group of donors and lobbyists, a setting where he was not performing for cameras. The audio was obtained by the New York Times, which reported the exchange. Paxton did not dispute that the convention weakened GOP polling; he confirmed it directly.
The admission comes as Paxton faces State Rep. James Talarico in a tight Senate race. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Talarico leads Paxton by 2.9 percentage points.
The Campaign Pushes Back
Nick Maddux, a campaign adviser to Paxton, responded to the New York Post’s report with a sharp rejection of the Times’ coverage. Maddux called the story “more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist.”
Maddux also pointed to internal polling that shows Paxton ahead. His statement included:
- A reference to the latest poll showing Paxton leading by three points
- A claim that serious pollsters agree GOP numbers have improved since early September
The adviser’s response frames the report as a fabrication, even though the audio exists and was published by a reputable outlet. Paxton himself did not contradict the admission in public; the pushback came from his team.
Trump’s Closing Tour
The convention took place earlier this month in Dallas, and the polling slide followed shortly after. Now the GOP is locked in a close Senate race with Democrats pushing hard in Texas.
Trump is scheduled to appear at a Peterbil Motors facility in Denton, Texas, Thursday as part of his closing push to keep control of the House and Senate. The timing puts the convention fallout at the center of a campaign that has already faced questions about momentum.
What the Numbers Show
The polling picture is narrow. Talarico leads Paxton by 2.9 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. That is a small margin, and it leaves both campaigns fighting for every voter.
Paxton’s own words suggest the convention did not help his position. He said the numbers dropped for everybody, not just his own campaign. The admission raises questions about whether the event delivered the boost the GOP expected.
The Report’s Limits
The report was published Sept. 30, 2026, at 7:46 a.m. The audio was obtained by the New York Times, which reported the exchange. The story relies on recorded audio from Paxton’s remarks.
“More manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist.”
The story does not establish whether the slide was temporary or permanent. It documents what Paxton said in private, and it is a single outlet’s recording of those words.
Where This Leaves Voters
The convention is over, the polling slide is real, and the race remains tight. Paxton’s own words captured on audio tell the story: the numbers dropped, and he knows it.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs neither Paxton nor his campaign’s public pushback, and instead supports transparency and honesty over political spin. The admission that the convention dropped Republican polling numbers is a matter of record, and Paxton confirmed it directly rather than disputing it. The campaign’s rejection of the Times coverage treats the audio as nonexistent, but the recording exists and was published by a reputable outlet.
The paper’s north star includes individual freedom, support for small business, and avoidance of concentrations of power, in government or in business. This story tests how candidates handle their own mistakes, and Paxton handled this one honestly in private, while his team treated the reporting as fabrication. The paper respects the direct admission over the denial.
Voters should watch how campaigns respond when their own candidacies come under scrutiny. Honest admissions carry weight, and the paper supports candidates who make them rather than deny them. The race between Paxton and Talarico remains tight, with the latter leading by 2.9 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. The convention fallout is now part of the narrative, and the campaign’s denial of the audio adds noise to an already narrow contest.
Source material: “Ken Paxton admitted ‘everybody’s numbers dropped’ after GOP midterm convention: report,” the New York Post.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.