Wednesday evening sees the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox come together for Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series at Yankee Stadium, with a betting model arguing the Over is the better wager. The game is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
On Tuesday, New York began the series with a 9-0 win. The Yankees sit at 93-68, having come in second place in the AL East. At home this year, they are 47-34. Boston, meanwhile, stands at 87-75 and finished third in the division. On the road in 2026, the Red Sox are 46-36.
Sonny Gray, a right-handed pitcher with a record of 18-5 and an ERA of 2.72, will start for Boston. Max Fried, a left-handed pitcher with a record of 5-5 and an ERA of 2.80, will take the mound for the Yankees. The Yankees are favored by -134 on the money line, which means a bet of $134 would win $100.
The Model’s Record
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2026 playoffs on a 31-25 run on all top-rated money-line picks, returning more than $900 for $100 players.
The returns on its selections at MLB betting sites were notable, and anyone paying attention would have noticed.
Over or Under
The model is going Over 6.5 combined runs. The Over has hit in each of the last three meetings, including Tuesday’s Game 1. It has also hit in nine of the past 13 Yankees home games when the line is above 7.
The Over is 10-9-1 in Max Fried starts. The model projects 7.8 total runs, as the Over hits 63% of the time.
Bases Projections
Ceddanne Rafaela, Jahmai Jones, Adley Rutschman and Willson Contreras are expected to combine for 1.6 total bases or more for the Red Sox. Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones and Luis Garcia are projected to put up 1.4 total bases or more for the Yankees.
Value Pick
The model ran a simulation with 10,000 pitches and found that one side of the money line offers the best value. That pick is available at SportsLine.
What To Watch
- The Over at 6.5 runs
- Sonny Gray vs. Max Fried
- The Red Sox trying to avoid a sweep
- The Yankees looking to close it out
Promo Codes
A distinct promo code, CBSSPORTS, brings a $50 bonus following $10 in trades. Another promo code, CBSSPORTS55, points new users toward Kalshi with a $55 trading bonus after $25 in trades.
The model’s track record suggests it knows what it is doing.
Final Word
The Over at 6.5 runs is the selection here. The scoring should keep moving, and the Over has proven reliable in this pairing over recent games.
Check SportsLine for the full breakdown.
Source material: “Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB playoff picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30 by model,” CBS Sports.
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