The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers meet on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, and a betting model has made its picks public. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has a stated record of 54-43 on top-rated picks since 2024, according to SportsLine.
The Steelers are favored in the matchup, sitting at 2.5-point favorites. The total points line sits at 38.5. The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland.
Dowdle Out For Pittsburgh
The Steelers’ running back Rico Dowdle is out for the game with a toe injury.
Model’s Picks
The model is going Under 38.5 points at betting apps. Two of three Pittsburgh games have gone Under the total this season. Cleveland, meanwhile, is coming off an Under against Carolina when the teams combined for 39 points.
Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring through three weeks. They also both finished in the bottom eight of total offense last season, so there is an extended track record of offensive struggles.
The model’s projections show that both teams will fall short of throwing for 200 yards, with neither team expected to produce a rusher who reaches 70 yards on the ground. In 56% of its simulations, the model lands on a total score under 37 combined points.
Spread Pick
Nearly all of the model’s simulations show one side of the spread coming through, with the figure landing at nearly 60%. The complete set of picks from the model can be found at SportsLine right now.
| Team | Record | Last Result |
|---|---|---|
| Browns | 2-1 | Won 21-18 over Carolina |
| Steelers | 2-1 | Won 30-27 over Cincinnati |
What The Model Has Done
The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. SportsLine says anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Polymarket gives new users a $50 bonus after $10 in trades with the code CBSSPORTS, while Kalshi offers a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the code CBSSPORTS55. Both deals come from SportsLine’s promo code offering.
How To Make Picks
SportsLine has not revealed which side of the spread it backs. The model’s full picks can be found at SportsLine now.
That the Under has come up in simulations more often than expected is the striking figure here. The 56% hit rate backs this up, pointing to the Under as the stronger bet across the board.
Final Word
Thursday night brings together the Browns and the Steelers, and the model has made its selections. What remains to be seen is whether anyone decides to follow them.
Source material: “Browns vs. Steelers predictions, odds, time: Week 4 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model,” CBS Sports.
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