New polls are showing Americans care about the midterm elections, even if they disagree on how to describe them. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that sixty-five percent of registered voters said voting was a duty, while thirty-four percent said it was a choice. Democrats and Republicans agreed on this point: voting is a responsibility.
The polls also show a deep split in how voters feel about the parties themselves. In the 2024 exit poll, only two percent of voters liked both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Forty-four percent liked only Trump, and forty-four percent liked only Harris. That pattern held from earlier years too: in 2016, only two percent of voters liked both Trump and Hillary Clinton, with forty-one percent liking only her and thirty-eight percent liking only him.
Voting as a Duty
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll asked registered voters whether they saw voting as a duty or a choice. The result was clear: sixty-five percent said it was a duty, while thirty-four percent said it was a choice. The poll found that Democrats and Republicans agreed on this point, even though they disagreed on nearly everything else.
The question matters because it gets at how voters see their role in democracy. Those who see voting as a duty treat it as an obligation, something they owe to the country. Those who see it as a choice treat it as a personal decision, one they can make or skip based on their own interests.
The poll also found that seventy-five percent of registered voters were confident their state and local government would run a fair and accurate election in November. Two-thirds of Republicans gave this response. That confidence is notable, especially given the recent history of election disputes and the ongoing fight over voting rights.
Voter Contact and Decision-Making
Thirty-eight percent of voters in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they had been contacted by a campaign, political party, or civic organization encouraging them to vote. That number shows that campaigns are reaching out to voters in a big way, and that voters are noticing.
The mid-September Economist/YouGov poll asked a similar question about voter decision-making. Seventy-three percent of registered voters said their mind was made up about their House vote. Eleven percent said they would consider voting for a different candidate, while twelve percent were still undecided. Among those in states with a Senate contest, seventy-four percent said their mind was made up, while fourteen percent said they might change their minds.
In 2022, voters made their decisions early. Sixty-eight percent told exit pollsters they made up their minds about the House vote before October. Nineteen percent said in October, and six percent said in the final days. That suggests the midterms are already taking shape, with most voters settling on their choices months before Election Day.
Party Loyalty and Candidate Views
The NBC News poll asked voters about their views of specific candidates and parties. JD Vance was viewed negatively by forty-eight percent and positively by thirty-seven. Trump was viewed fifty-five negative to thirty-seven positive. The Republican Party was viewed forty-nine negative to thirty-six positive, while the Democratic Party was viewed fifty negative to twenty-nine positive.
The Economist/YouGov poll took a different approach, focusing on specific senators. Chuck Schumer was fifty-two unfavorable and twenty-seven favorable. Hakeem Jeffries was forty-one favorable to twenty-nine unfavorable. Mike Johnson was forty-three favorable to twenty-eight unfavorable. John Thune was thirty-four favorable to eighteen unfavorable. Fifty-one percent did not know who Sen. Jon Ossoff was.
These numbers show that voters have strong feelings about individual politicians, but they are less familiar with some of the newer faces in Congress.
The Ballot Question
The polls also show that voters are paying attention to the races themselves. In the Economist/YouGov poll, thirty-nine percent of registered voters predicted Democrats would hold the Senate majority after November. Thirty-five percent predicted Republicans would. That gap is narrow, but it suggests the race is close enough to matter.
Seventy-three percent of Democrats said their party would take control. Seventy-two percent of Republicans said their party would. The numbers are close, but the predictions diverge sharply along party lines.
Forty-five percent predicted Democrats would control the House. Thirty-one percent predicted Republicans would. Again, the gap is small, but it reflects a national conversation about which party will win.
Eighty-seven percent of voters in the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they cared a great deal or quite a bit about which party wins control of Congress in November. That number shows that voters are engaged, even if they disagree on the details.
| Poll | Question | Result |
|---|---|---|
| NPR/PBS News/Marist | Voting as a duty vs. choice | 65% duty, 34% choice |
| NPR/PBS News/Marist | Confidence in state/local elections | 75% confident |
| Economist/YouGov | Mind made up about House vote | 73% made up, 11% considering change, 12% undecided |
| NBC News | JD Vance | 48% negative, 37% positive |
| NBC News | Trump | 55% negative, 37% positive |
| NBC News | Republican Party | 49% negative, 36% positive |
| NBC News | Democratic Party | 50% negative, 29% positive |
The Record Year for Lawmakers
A record seventy-four House lawmakers were leaving the body when the primary season ended this year. The departure number is notable, reflecting a wave of retirements and defeats that reshaped both parties heading into the midterms.
Trading Platforms and the Midterm Market
Trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket doubled between May and July, mostly driven by sports betting. The increase in activity shows that people are putting money behind their predictions, even if they are not sure which party will win.
The rise in trading volume is notable because it shows that voters are willing to bet on the outcome. Sports betting drove much of the growth, which means the market is not just about politics. It is also about entertainment and speculation.
What These Numbers Show
The polls show a consistent pattern: voters are engaged, but they are divided. They agree that voting is a duty, but they disagree on nearly everything else. They trust their state and local governments to run fair elections, but they are skeptical of the parties themselves. And they are making decisions early, even as the campaigns continue to reach out.
The midterms will be decided by the voters who show up on November 2.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs treating voting as a responsibility rather than a choice and is against framing the midterms as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. The poll results show that voters themselves agree: sixty-five percent see voting as a duty, while thirty-four percent see it as a choice. That duty is the individual’s responsibility, not a transaction.
The split in party loyalty — only two percent of voters liked both Trump and Kamala Harris, while forty-four percent liked only Trump and forty-four percent liked only Harris — shows the depth of division. The paper’s position is against treating these divisions as a horse race, because both machines gather power.
The paper wants voters to focus on the individual candidates and offices, not on which machine wins. The polls show voters are paying attention and making decisions early. The paper would prefer voters judge candidates issue by issue against its north star — individual freedom, small business, and no concentrations of power — rather than choosing sides based on loyalty alone.
Source material: “Political straws in the wind: New polls,” the Washington Examiner.
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