Brazilians will head to the polls Sunday for the first round of the presidential election, and the race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro is tightening. But the real test of who wins may come from the kitchen.
The cut of beef in question is picanha, the country’s prized sirloin cap steak. It is a marker of prosperity in Brazil, and its presence—or absence—on dinner tables tells voters how the economy is doing.
Four years ago, Lula promised voters they could afford picanha again if he won. The country was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, with Lula running for reelection and polls suggesting a tight contest, the steak is back as a proxy for the economy.
Picanha Is a Marker of Prosperity
Picanha is a marker of prosperity in this beef-loving country.
Marcella Pirozzi, 44, co-owner of a Rio de Janeiro barbecue company, says she only tries to sell picanha in wealthy parts of the city these days. In poorer areas, people are “more conservative” about their spending, she says. “We don’t get hired to cater events very often due to meat prices.”
Arthur Guedes, 37, a butcher shop owner on Rio’s working-class north side, has scaled back his picanha expectations too. He now focuses on hamburger patties, a more accessible product.
The Numbers Behind the Vote
Lula’s economic record is under scrutiny. A recent survey found that only 10 percent of Brazilians feel their income has grown faster than the cost of living in the past year.
After Lula took office, a burst of public spending sped up economic growth, though it is now slowing. In the first three years of his term, average wages grew more than inflation. Household indebtedness also shot up, driven by sports gambling, easy credit lines, and high interest rates.
By this June, Brazilian households were spending 26.6 percent of their income on non-mortgage debt payments, according to the central bank.
Some analysts say Brazil now fits a concept from the United States: a “vibecession.” That is an economy that is not technically in recession but feels unaffordable. University of São Paulo economist Laura Carvalho argues the phrase fits.
She says the gap between data and perception comes from Brazilians comparing now to the 2000s, when Lula’s first presidency brought dramatic growth and families bought refrigerators and air travel for the first time. Today’s economy suffers from price shocks: the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and now the Iran war. Trump’s tariffs on Brazil have added to the strain.
Carvalho says voter worries about living costs are part of a global trend. “You have incumbents everywhere that are suffering the effects of the price increases of the different shocks,” she said. “People look at the price increase and they blame whoever is in government.”
Bolsonaro’s Playbook
Bolsonaro is playing up the idea that basics have become unaffordable. He posted a video of himself denouncing prices in the supermarket, naming picanha.
He has not given much detail on his own plans. He broadly argues cutting taxes and spending will boost growth. One of his top advisors has praised the policies of libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei, which have reduced inflation but seen poverty rise.
Lula has downplayed concerns about Brazil’s national debt. He has announced new measures, including a debt restructuring program and a ban on online betting, aimed at household indebtedness.
Voters Weighing the Candidates
Guedes, the butcher, said he still had not decided how to vote only days before the election. “I don’t see clear strategies from the candidates for how to improve the country,” he said.
Pirozzi has made up her mind. She says she is “ready for a change” and will vote for Bolsonaro.
The irony is that the election comes down to a steak that nobody can afford. Lula promised picanha, and voters got a taste of it. Now they are deciding whether the economy that delivered it was worth the bill.
Key facts:
– Only 10 percent of Brazilians feel income has grown faster than cost of living in past year
– Brazilian households spent 26.6 percent of income on non-mortgage debt payments by June
– Picanha is a sirloin cap steak, a marker of prosperity in Brazil
Source material: “Picanha, prices and politics: What Brazil's favorite steak says about the election,” NPR.
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