Republicans Set Their Sights on Ten Democratic House Seats to Hold On to Their Majority

Republicans are looking at 10 Democrat-held House seats they could flip to save their majority, and the path runs through redistricting and a far-left insurgency within the Democratic Party.

The Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats leading Republicans in the House, with the model projecting Democrats to win 215 seats and Republicans to win 201. Nineteen seats remain toss-ups.

The Alabama Case

In Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., is running for re-election in a district redrawn to favor Republicans. A 2023 Supreme Court decision ordered Alabama to create a second Black opportunity district ahead of the 2024 election, helping Figures win his seat. The district voted for President Donald Trump by roughly 14% in 2024 per 270ToWin. Fox News Power Rankings and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rate it as “likely Republican.”

Louisiana’s Shift

Louisiana v. Callais, decided earlier this year, significantly curbed the Voting Rights Act’s enforcement of racial considerations in congressional maps. That allowed southern states to alter district boundaries drawn to give minorities more representation.

Florida’s Four Races

Florida’s 9th Congressional District is held by Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., who is running for a sixth term. His district was redrawn to give Republicans a slight edge, and it voted for Trump by nearly 18% in 2024 per 270ToWin. Fox News Power Rankings rates it “lean Republican,” while CPR ranks it a “likely” Republican pickup.

Florida’s 14th Congressional District pits Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., against Republican Mike Beltran. The district’s new lines removed more Democrat-leaning places around St. Petersburg in favor of rural and suburban areas, projecting Trump winning by 10.5% in 2024 per 270ToWin. Both Fox News Power Rankings and CPR rate it a “toss-up.”

Florida’s 22nd Congressional District is occupied by political newcomer Democrat Pia Dandiya versus Republican businessman and Marine Casey Askar. Retiring Rep. Lois Frankel’s seat is on the line. Both Fox News and CPR rank it a “toss-up.” 270ToWin projects Trump winning by roughly 10% in 2024.

Florida’s 25th Congressional District has Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., running after redistricting shifted the seat from one Kamala Harris won by single digits to one Trump would have won by nearly 10 points. Fox News leans it Democrat while CPR calls it a “toss-up.”

Louisiana’s Redrawn Seat

Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District sees Rep. Cleo Fields, D-La., retire. Republicans redrew the district to dilute the Black population, who voted Democrat in 2024, adding more red-leaning areas. Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry delayed the state’s House primary to Nov. 3 and general election to Dec. 12. Both Fox News and CPR project the seat falling to Republicans.

Maine’s Open Seat

Moderate Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, retired, opening a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup.

What the Ratings Show

Fox News Power Rankings and CPR disagree on some seats, but the pattern holds: Republicans hold the advantage in districts they drew.

The districts Republicans drew include:

• Alabama’s 2nd District, where Figures faces a redraw that favored Republicans
• Florida’s 9th District, redrawn to give Republicans a slight edge
• Florida’s 14th District, redrawn to remove Democrat-leaning places around St. Petersburg
• Florida’s 22nd District, redrawn in a way that could pit two incumbents against each other
• Louisiana’s 6th District, redrawn to dilute the Black population and add red-leaning areas

Republicans are betting on redistricting and warnings about the Democratic Party’s leftward tilt to flip enough seats. The question is whether the districts they drew will actually deliver the results they expect.

Source material: “10 Democrat-held House seats Republicans could flip to save their majority,” Fox News.

elections · gerrymandering · GOP strategy · House races · redistricting