Digital assets tend to do best in October, a month the crypto community calls Uptober, and Bitcoin’s start at $83,823 has people wondering if it will match that reputation. The question is whether the coin can live up to its title after a September that nearly set a record.
The coin finished September with a 6.33% gain, up 7.33% on the day with one trading session left. That edge past 2024’s 7.29% record for September looked like a record until the final correction knocked it back. The correction brought the month’s close below the previous high, leaving Bitcoin green but no longer a record-setter.
The Case for Uptober
Since 2013, October has come back 19.92% on average for crypto investors and 14.71% at the median, according to CoinGlass. The pattern was broken last year, when October 2025 ended down 3.69%, marking the third red October since 2013. This year’s October will hinge on the same blend of technical trends, trader expectations, and outside forces.
The numbers back the optimistic view. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, comes in at 41.5, comfortably over the 25 level that signals a genuine trend. The upward momentum line rests above the downward one, a sign that buyers, not sellers, are controlling this move. The shorter 50-day Exponential Moving Average sits above the longer 200-day, pointing to an uptrend in the near term. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, holds at 61.8, with bulls firmly in control without touching the 70 level where profit-taking often begins.
What the Macro Picture Says
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It was the first hike since July 2023, and the vote was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation “remains elevated,” and the Fed’s median projection points to one more 25-basis-point hike this year. The next decision lands Oct. 28.
When interest rates go up, they often become news for assets such as Bitcoin, since cheap money grows scarce and investing shifts toward safer bets, like Treasuries. Because Bitcoin produces no yield, traders see rising Treasury rates as direct competition. The 10-year Treasury closed September at 5.289%, and the 30-year reached 5.632%, both marking 52-week highs.
Stocks are not cheering the rate hike either. The S&P 500 and Dow both posted monthly losses in September as yields climbed. August PCE inflation came in cooler than forecast, at 3.4% annually against 3.7% expected, with core at 3.0% against 3.3%.
The ETF Picture
Nine straight days of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs came to an end on Sept. 30, when the funds lost about $148.69 million instead. That figure comes from Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker, which shows the streak had brought in roughly $3.08 billion through Sept. 29. With total net assets now over $101 billion, note that the numbers can differ by a few billion depending on which tracking source is used.
From Sept. 21, the total was roughly $2.4 billion, with a single day bringing in $999 million. So far this week, the tally shows a loss of $51.42 million.
Trader Odds
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, are placing 90% odds on Bitcoin hitting a high of $85,000. There is currently a 70% chance Bitcoin hits $87,500, according to Myriad’s odds. The safest bet of the bunch at the moment is that BTC stays flat.
A distinct market gives odds of just 7% that Bitcoin will reach a new peak before 2027, a gain of about 50% from current levels that is currently viewed as highly improbable.
Technical Positioning
The opening price for today’s candle was $83,588.27, and it has moved within a range defined by $83,134.08 and $84,360.88. The current position is $83,823.14, resting within the retreat from the $87,354.33 peak that came after a recovery from $74,977.57.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator reading of “off,” signals that the period of volatility compression has ended and the pressure has been relieved. At the same time, Bollinger Bands are widening, showing that prices are moving further away from their average level.
Calendar Risks
A busy month lies ahead for investors, with several reports and a major central bank meeting set to shape market sentiment. On Oct. 2, the September jobs report lands. Then come the FOMC minutes on Oct. 7, followed by the CPI reading on Oct. 14, before the Fed makes its decision on Oct. 28. Myriad’s October market closes Oct. 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
“remains elevated”
The Bottom Line
A solid technical foundation and a positive historical context support Bitcoin. Traders appear to think a $90,000 high from October is possible, although a new record high before 2027 does not look likely.
The question of whether October follows its usual course rests upon how the calendar risks work themselves out.
Source material: “It's the Start of Uptober. Will Bitcoin Live Up to It?,” Decrypt.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.