On Thursday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Huntington Bank Field for a game against the Cleveland Browns. The victor earns the right to claim they are the AFC North’s top team. With both clubs standing at 2-1 entering Week 4, this contest will determine which side advances in the division.
The Week 4 Streak
The Browns have strung together two victories in a row following a season-opening loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both of those wins were secured by touchdown passes in the closing minutes, with the defense locking down the opposition on the game’s final possession. The sequence repeats itself: scoring at the end, holding on, and doing it again.
The Steelers have come up with two victories in their most recent trio of contests. They claimed a one-score win over the Atlanta Falcons, suffered a one-score defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots, and subsequently secured a tight decision against the Cincinnati Bengals. The defensive unit has remained steady throughout, while the offensive side of the ball finally broke through in that third matchup.
The Game Details
The game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 1. Amazon Prime streams the game, and odds are available through DraftKings Sportsbook. The spread is Steelers -2.5, with the total set at 38.5.
Steelers Offense Finally Shows Life
The Steelers’ offense struggled in Weeks 1 and 2, managing only 499 yards between games against the Falcons and Patriots. That total came from 350 passing and 149 rushing, along with 31 first downs and three turnovers. In their game against the Bengals, they picked up 411 yards, nearly splitting production between the air and the ground. The team threw for one interception, which flew right through a receiver’s hands and landed in a defender’s lap.
“The Browns have won each of their last two games with late scores.”
Dowdle Out, Warren Runs Wild
Rico Dowdle is sidelined for the Steelers, which puts Jaylen Warren in charge of the running game. Warren saw action on 90% of the snaps last week and accumulated 20 touches for 176 yards. One long touchdown run was taken off the board, and he lost his footing in the open field on a play that would have produced another long touchdown. The Steelers’ ground attack has grown with each game, rising from 58 yards to 91 to 138.
Rodgers Struggles Through the Air
This season, Aaron Rodgers has completed just 58.4% of his passes, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. His most productive game came against the Bengals. He has found it hard to hit receivers downfield, instead relying on checkdowns to Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington and others in the underneath zones. The Browns have held opponents to only 278 yards after the catch so far, while giving up a below-average 4.3 per reception.
Browns Can’t Run the Ball
Watson’s play this season has not approached the struggles he showed during his earlier years with the Browns. He has thrown for a completion percentage of 68.2%, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, with five touchdown passes to one interception. In each of the last two games, he has engineered a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
The Browns have found it difficult to run the ball, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and ranking 29th in the NFL. That stat is inflated by Watson’s scrambling. Judkins leads the running backs with 42 carries, but he has managed just 3.0 yards per tote. His best performance came in the season opener, when he averaged 3.9 per carry.
Defense Holds Up for Both Sides
In the season’s first game, the Steelers showed a strong defensive effort against the Falcons, but they have appeared somewhat more exposed during the last two contests. The team has relied on creating turnovers to win those games, forcing two in each of the last two matches. This past week, a game-clinching fumble against Joe Burrow was among those forced turnovers.
This season, the Browns have yielded 313 yards to the Buccaneers and 360 to the Panthers, with some help from three separate turnovers on downs. Opponents have averaged 4.5 yards per rush against them, whereas the Steelers themselves have managed 4.3 per rush.
Key Numbers
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
- Streaming: Amazon Prime
- Odds: Steelers -2.5, O/U 38.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Prediction
Over their last two games, the Browns have emerged victorious thanks to late scoring plays, though they have been outplayed statistically in every contest this year. They have failed to reach even 17 first downs in any single outing. The forecast hinges on the Browns being outplayed and still prevailing, a strange manner of wagering against them.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 14.
Source material: “Browns vs. Steelers: Winner takes the lead in AFC North in 'Thursday Night Football' matchup,” CBS Sports.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.