Fox News has released its first poll of the Texas Senate race, and Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton 51-49% among likely voters in the Lone Star State. The survey was conducted September 24-28, 2026, with interviews from 1,203 Texas registered voters, including 881 likely voters.
Talarico carries a net personal rating above zero, standing at 8 points with 52% favorable reactions against 44% unfavorable ones. Paxton’s rating sits below water, at 18 points, with 40% favorable responses and 58% unfavorable. Among Republicans, unfavorable views of Paxton outnumber favorable ones by a far larger margin than Democrats hold unfavorable views of Talarico; specifically, Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats are to view Talarico unfavorably (5%).
The Numbers Behind the Lead
Texas registered voters put Talarico ahead by seven points overall, beyond the margin of error. This is an increase from his three-point advantage in July. Non-MAGA Republicans favor him more than five times as often as MAGA Republicans do (22% to 4%).
Twenty percent of likely voters who backed Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary now back Talarico. All DSA Democrats (100%) and nearly all non-DSA Democrats (98%) back him; 89% of Talarico’s backers are certain of their support vs. 85% of Paxton’s.
Paxton’s best groups are White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters ages 65 and over (55%).
The Cost of Living Runs Through It
Roughly equal shares are concerned Talarico is too liberal (53%) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%). Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024; today his job approval is underwater at 44% approve vs. 55% disapprove.
Sixteen percent of Trump disapprovers still back Paxton; nine percent of Trump approvers back Talarico. Seven in ten Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote; twice as many say they are falling behind financially (35%) as getting ahead (16%).
Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points; those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points; those holding steady (48%) narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.
Abbott’s Governor’s Race Edge
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a 52%-47% edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Abbott’s approval as governor stands at 52%; 47% disapprove, matching the share backing Hinojosa.
Men, Republicans, and moderates favor Abbott over Paxton in the governor’s contest, while women are more evenly split. A tenth of Talarico supporters say they back Abbott for governor; only 3% of Paxton supporters say they back Hinojosa.
The Political Math Underneath
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who runs Fox News Polls alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, described the situation plainly. “Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate,”
“Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans,” Shaw added.
Key Facts Box
- Talarico leads Paxton 51-49% among likely voters
- Poll conducted September 24-28, 2026
- Interviews from 1,203 Texas registered voters, 881 likely voters
- Talarico’s lead is seven points among all registered voters
- Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024
- Abbott leads Hinojosa 52%-47% in the governor’s race
The contest remains close, yet a discernible shape has emerged. As governor, Abbott holds an approval rating of 52%, and his efforts to mobilize voters could prove decisive in both campaigns.
Source material: “Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton,” Fox News.
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