Spain’s “La Bola Negra,” Romania’s “Fjord” and Denmark’s “Woman Unknown” are leading the early race for the best international feature Oscar, according to Variety’s latest predictions. The submission deadline has passed, and the industry now waits on the official tally of entries. With the deadline behind them, the field is set, though the numbers behind each film’s standing have yet to be confirmed.
The TIFF Winner
“La Bola Negra” arrives with the TIFF People’s Choice Award.
Cannes Delivers Two
Cannes has supplied two major players this year. “Fjord,” representing Romania, won the Palme d’Or. The runner-up, “Minotaur,” will compete for France.
Venice Momentum
South Korea’s “Possible Love” has significant momentum after Lee Chang-dong took the directing prize at Venice.
The Distribution Question
Then there is “Woman Unknown,” Denmark’s selection and the Golden Lion winner. Its Oscar prospects sit on a question mark: it still seeks U.S. distribution.
The Shortlist Process
Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, 2026, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2026. Nominations voting runs Jan. 11-15, 2027, with nominations announced Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars take place Sunday, March 14, 2027, hosted by Conan O’Brien, airing live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.
What Comes Next
The official tally of entries has yet to be released. Until then, these films remain the most talked-about contenders.
Key Dates
- Submission deadline: Passed
- Shortlist voting: Dec. 7-11, 2026
- Shortlist announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2026
- Nominations voting: Jan. 11-15, 2027
- Nominations announced: Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027
- Oscars ceremony: Sunday, March 14, 2027
The race is fluid, and buzz can shift quickly. The predictions are curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis and reflect the current standings in the race.
Source material: “Oscars: International Feature — ‘La Bola Negra,’ ‘Fjord’ and ‘Woman Unknown’ Lead Early Contenders,” Variety.
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