The midterms are three weeks away, and the race for control of Congress is tightening. Polling now suggests Democrats are favored to take back the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate, on 3 November. The Iran war and rising fuel costs have shifted the political winds in their favor.
Democrats have campaigned on affordability, pointing to higher gasoline and diesel prices tied to the conflict with Iran. The economy has emerged as the top issue in surveys, ahead of immigration, healthcare and civil rights. That ordering reflects what voters actually care about most right now.
Trump’s Lowest Point
President Donald Trump’s approval has fallen to 32% according to Reuters/Ipsos. That is a new low for his presidency, though not the lowest ever recorded. Gallup registered Trump’s previous low of 34% at the end of his first term in 2021, after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol.
The decline has accelerated in recent months, as the war with Iran and its knock-on effects on inflation have reshaped the national conversation. Voters are responding to pocketbook concerns more than any other factor, and the president’s ratings have followed. That pattern suggests the economy’s performance will continue to weigh heavily on how he is judged heading into the election.
The Generic Ballot Edge
Generic ballot surveys give Democrats an edge ranging from the high single digits to the low double digits. These polls ask voters which party they prefer for Congress, without naming candidates or districts.
The margin is not huge, but it is consistent across multiple surveys. Democrats have closed the gap with Republicans in the run-up to the midterms, a nationwide shift that has changed the shape of the contest. The closing of that gap represents a significant change in the dynamic of the election, moving the contest from one where Republicans held a clear advantage to one where Democrats now hold the lead.
The Economy as Top Issue
Surveys rate the economy as the most important issue facing the country, ahead of immigration, healthcare and civil rights. That ordering reflects what voters actually care about most right now.
The war with Iran has driven fuel prices higher, and those increases have hit drivers and households across the country. Democrats have framed the issue as one of affordability, and that message has resonated in polling. The focus on affordability has become a defining feature of the Democratic campaign, with candidates across the country tying their messages directly to the cost of living.
What Happens Next
The midterms will determine whether Republicans hold their majority in Congress or whether Democrats can wrest control of the House and Senate. The outcome will shape the next two years of federal policymaking.
The election is set for 3 November, and the next few weeks will determine which party controls the legislative agenda in Washington. The Iran war has reshaped the political landscape, and the economy has emerged as the issue that will decide the outcome. Voters will be weighing the state of the nation when they cast their ballots, and the economy’s position at the top of their concerns means it will carry particular weight in their decisions.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 3 November | Midterm elections |
The race is still tight, but the momentum has shifted toward the Democrats. The Iran war has swung the advantage their way, and the economy remains the issue that matters most to voters. The midterms will settle the question, and the country will know by the end of November which party holds the reins of power in Washington.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs the middle class and small business carrying the economy without bailouts or carve-outs, and is against any concentration of power in government or business that would take away citizens’ say over their own lives. The economy has emerged as the top issue facing voters, and the paper’s north star of individual freedom, small business and no concentrations of power points toward a campaign focused on lowering the cost of living and the cost of doing business, not on who wins a horse race between two machines.
What this story shows is a campaign defined by affordability — higher fuel prices tied to the war with Iran — and a president whose approval has fallen to a new low of 32%. Those are the conditions under which voters are making their choices, and the paper’s judgment is that the candidates who offer real relief to families and small businesses, rather than empty slogans, are the ones worth supporting.
The paper wants to see the focus stay where it belongs: on the cost of living, on the ability of citizens to start and run a business without being crowded out by the biggest players, and on keeping the economy carried by the middle class rather than handed over to a few favored interests. The reader should watch for candidates who promise real change on these fronts, not just soundbites about the economy as a general issue.
See the video the story is built around at The Guardian.
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