Northwestern hosts Penn State on Friday night in Evanston, and the Wildcats are looking to snap a two-game losing streak against the Nittany Lions. The Big Ten matchup is set for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff at Ryan Field, with Penn State listed as a -2.5 favorite and the total set at 45.5 points.
The game is part of the Friday slate for Week 5 of the college football season. Both teams enter with just one loss each, but the history between them favors Penn State. The Nittany Lions have won 16 of the last 22 meetings, though Northwestern took the most recent meeting, defeating Penn State 22-21 in 2025.
Penn State’s Recent Slide
Penn State comes in off a disappointing performance against Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions led 17-0 in the second quarter but were outscored 24-3 the rest of the way, falling 24-20 despite being a 9.5-point favorite at home. It was Penn State’s first loss of the season.
The other three games have gone better. Penn State opened with a 45-0 win over Marshall in Week 1, followed by a 27-9 victory over Temple in Week 2 and a 55-13 win over Buffalo in Week 3.
Quarterback Rocco Becht, who transferred from Iowa State, has thrown for 865 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception on 57 of 93 passing. He has also rushed for 22 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries.
Northwestern’s Road Problems
Northwestern also lost its first game of the season. The Wildcats traveled to face defending national champion Indiana and fell 29-23, covering their 20.5-point spread as the underdog. It was their only loss of the year.
The other two games went well. Northwestern beat San Diego State 34-18 in Week 1 and defeated Colorado 41-7 in Week 3.
The offense has been boosted by the addition of Aidan Chiles, a transfer from Michigan State who plays quarterback. Chiles has thrown for 807 yards and six touchdowns on 53 of 75 passes, while also rushing for 20 yards and four touchdowns on 30 carries.
Northwestern is 3-0 against the spread this season, having covered its 20.5-point spread against Indiana and winning blowouts in their other games. The Wildcats finished 7-4-2 ATS in 2025.
The Model’s Projection
SportsLine’s Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. For this matchup, it projects Penn State to win 29-23 on Friday. The model gives Penn State a simulation average spread probability of 61%, which is significantly higher than the consensus odds implied probability of 53.9%.
The over probability is even stronger. SportsLine’s average is 65.4% for over 45.5, compared to a consensus odds implied probability of 52.2%.
The Pick
The pick goes with Penn State at -2.5. Northwestern has been solid against the spread this season, but Penn State’s recent history and the model’s projection favor the home team.
The key stat is the spread probability. SportsLine’s 61% chance of Penn State covering the -2.5 line is notably higher than the market’s 53.9% implied probability. That gap suggests value on the Nittany Lions.
Northwestern’s defense will need to find answers against a Penn State attack that has been scoring at will in its wins. The Wildcats have shown they can compete with anyone on the road, but they have not beaten Penn State since 2025.
The model’s 29-23 projection lines up with a close game, but the spread is small enough that Penn State should be favored. The pick is Penn State -2.5.
Key Facts Box
- Kickoff: Friday, 8 p.m. ET at Ryan Field
- Spread: Penn State -2.5
- Total: 45.5
- Penn State record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS
- Northwestern record: 2-1, 3-0 ATS
- Last meeting: Northwestern 22-21 over Penn State in 2025
The pick is Penn State -2.5. Northwestern has the talent to compete, but Penn State has the momentum and the recent edge in this series. The model backs the home side, and the pick is Penn State -2.5.
Source material: “Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, picks, predictions, start time: Betting preview for college football Week 5,” CBS Sports.
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