Apple’s October Prime Day discounts break down: which gadgets are worth buying now, which aren’t

Amazon’s October Prime Day kicks off in two days, and Apple shoppers are being told to sit tight — or to buy now. The sale runs Oct. 6 and 7, but a few deals are already live, and a Mashable writer who follows these sales closely thinks the timing matters more than ever.

The writer’s argument is simple: most of Amazon’s current Apple deals will get better when Prime Big Deal Days officially starts. But a couple of items need to be grabbed immediately, because they might vanish before the sale officially begins.

Deals Worth Grabbing Now

The writer points to three specific deals that should be bought right away:

1. The Apple AirPods 4 are down to $99 at Walmart, matching their lowest price of the year. New pairs of the AirPods 5 are gone from Amazon, leaving only used options starting at $84.55.
2. The Apple Watch Ultra 4 is already matching last year’s Prime Big Deal Days discount of $779.99, normally $799. Its upgrades include a faster processor, longer battery life, and a new heart rate monitoring system.
3. Two older M4 iPad Pros are deeply discounted: an 11-inch model with nano-texture display and 2TB storage for $1,899, and a 13-inch model with standard display and 512GB storage for $1,299. Both save $200 off their usual prices.

These deals are live now, and the writer warns that the iPad Pros in particular could sell out well before the official sale starts.

Deals to Hold Off On

The rest of the lineup, according to the writer, gets better on Oct. 6 and 7. The reasoning is historical: Amazon’s pattern is to offer small discounts early and larger ones during the main event.

The Apple Watch Series 12 is currently $389.99, almost $10 off its $399 sticker price. The writer notes that its predecessor, the Series 11, was only $10 off during its first Prime Big Deal Days. So the Series 12 probably won’t drop further.

The MacBook Pro with Apple’s most powerful laptop chip is a notable exception. It’s down $600, which is far beyond the usual $300 to $400 discount for MacBooks during Amazon’s Prime events. The writer adds that this exact configuration cost $3,599 before Apple raised its MacBook prices in June — so this discount negates that hike and then some.

AirPods Price Predictions

The writer also makes specific price predictions for the AirPods 5, AirPods Pro 3, and AirPods Max 2. The AirPods 5 are currently stuck at full price, with standard models at $129 and those with a wireless charging case at $149. The writer expects them to drop to $119 and $139, respectively, next month — not a big move.

The AirPods Pro 3 are down to $234, a 6% savings, but the writer says there’s a strong chance they’ll dip even lower for October’s festivities. The AirPods Max 2 are currently $479, or $70 off their $549 MSRP, but the writer advises waiting. They fell to $399 a couple of months ago on Prime Day — a 27% savings.

The Full Picture

Here’s how the deals break down across the two days:

The writer’s own view is that most deals improve during the main event, but the early availability means some shoppers can’t wait. The M4 iPad Pros are the clearest example: they’re cheaper than their newer M5 counterparts, and they could be gone before the sale officially starts.

The AirPods Max 2 is the one deal where the writer’s reasoning differs. Its recent $399 price was a 27% savings, and the writer expects further drops to be unlikely — that’s why waiting is advised. The AirPods Pro 3, by contrast, has room to drop further — the writer expects it to happen.

The Loop in the Advice

The irony here is that the writer is making predictions based on historical pricing patterns, then warning against waiting for the deals that fit those patterns. The advice creates its own tension: grab the early deals, but wait for the rest.

That tension is the whole story. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days is a fixed calendar event, and sellers know it. The discounts exist before the sale officially opens, but the writer’s reading of past sales suggests the best deals are still to come.

The writer’s conclusion is that the best strategy depends on the exact product. Some items are worth buying today, while others are better left until the sale officially starts. The writer’s own prediction is that the deals will improve on Oct. 6 and 7, but the early availability means some shoppers can’t wait.

The full guide, with more details and links to Mashable’s reviews, is available at mashable.com. The sale starts Oct. 6.

Source material: “October Prime Day Apple deals guide: What to buy now and what we think you should wait for,” Mashable.

AirPods · Apple deals · iPads · MacBook · October sale · Prime Day