A new poll suggests Democrats are running ahead in three states where President Donald Trump won by wide margins in 2024 — Texas, Alaska, and Ohio — while the race in Kansas is dead even.
The New York Times/Siena College poll covers five Senate contests: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. In Texas, Alaska, and Ohio, Democratic candidates lead. In Kansas, the two candidates sit at a tie. The poll shows Democrats tied or ahead in each of the five races.
Trump carried these states by between 11 and 16 percentage points in 2024.
The Five Races Covered
- Texas: Democrats ahead
- Alaska: Democrats ahead
- Ohio: Democrats ahead
- Iowa: Democrats ahead
- Kansas: Tied
The poll indicates a competitive environment in those Trump-won states as midterms approach.
How the Poll Breaks Down
The poll data shows a split between the five states. Texas, Alaska, and Ohio all went for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024. That makes the current polling position notable, though the source does not explain why.
Kansas is the outlier. There, the Republican and Democratic candidates are locked together, with neither holding a clear advantage.
Why This Matters
The fact that Democrats are ahead in three of the five races — all states Trump won by double digits — speaks to a national environment that is testing the usual patterns.
The Bottom Line
Democrats hold the edge in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio. Kansas is too close to call. Iowa rounds out the picture with Democrats also ahead there.
The poll does not predict outcomes. It captures a moment in time, and the moment shows Democrats performing better in these red-state contests than the historical record would suggest.
This is a snapshot of where the races stand now. The election is still weeks away, and polls can shift fast. But for now, Democrats have reason to watch these five states closely.
The pattern is clear: in the states Trump won by the widest margins, Democrats are running ahead in three of them, tied in one, and ahead in the fifth. That is a result that cuts against the conventional wisdom about midterm elections.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs no side in this horse race and is against treating elections as a contest between two machines gathering power, instead judging each candidate issue by issue against individual freedom, small business, and no concentrations of power. The poll shows Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska, and Ohio, tied in Kansas, and ahead in Iowa, but the paper takes no position on who should win any of these seats.
The paper’s north star — maximizing individual freedom, supporting small business, and avoiding concentrations of power — does not point clearly toward either side in these contests. What matters is how each candidate’s record and proposals measure up against that standard, not which party holds a lead in the polls.
Readers should watch for how candidates actually govern, not just how they perform in surveys. The election is still weeks away, and polls can shift fast.
Key Facts Box
- Poll: New York Times/Siena College
- States covered: Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas
- Trump margin in 2024: 11–16 percentage points
- Kansas result: Tied
- Texas, Alaska, Ohio: Democrats ahead
What Comes Next
The campaign season continues. Candidates will spend the final stretch trying to close the gap in Kansas and protect their leads elsewhere.
The poll data offers a window into a competitive landscape. Whether it holds through Election Day remains to be seen.
See the a run of 14 images at the Washington Examiner.
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