Week 1 of the NFL season has been a disaster for some teams and a gift to others. The Rams got blasted 27-7 by the 49ers in Australia. The Chargers lost 26-14 to the Cardinals. Every team in the NFC South is 0-1. The AFC West has a new favorite in Kansas City. And the computer says the NFC South is headed for a surprise winner.
The projections come from a simulated season run by Stephen Oh, the site’s resident analytics expert. He has the AFC playoff field and the NFC playoff field mapped out, along with a full bracket that ends with a surprise Super Bowl winner. The catch: all of this is based on one week of games.
AFC Playoff Field
The Chiefs opened as a question mark, but their 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday night changed that. The simulation now feels confident that the AFC West will go through Kansas City this year.
Here is how the AFC playoff field shakes out:
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- Ravens (AFC North champion)
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- Bills (AFC East champion)
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- Chiefs (AFC West champion)
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- Jaguars (AFC South champion)
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- Bengals
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- Texans
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- Broncos
Two new teams make the playoffs: the Bengals and Chiefs. The biggest surprise is the reigning AFC champion Patriots, who are projected to miss the postseason entirely.
NFC Playoff Field
The NFC West is a three-team playoff, with the Seahawks projected to win the division. The computer surprised everyone by picking the Seahawks over the Rams before the season, and Week 1 has made that look smart. The Rams are still projected to make the playoffs, but just barely.
The NFC South is the real oddity. Every team is 0-1. The computer likes Atlanta, the Falcons, to win the division despite their 20-13 loss to the Steelers. That game was marred by a third-string QB and missed field goals.
Here is the NFC playoff field:
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- Seahawks (NFC West champion)
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- Lions (NFC North champion)
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- Eagles (NFC East champion)
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- Falcons (NFC South champion)
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- 49ers
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- Bears
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- Rams
Wild Card Round
The AFC wild card round features a Bills-Broncos rematch. The Broncos shocked the Bills in the playoffs last season in Denver, but this game is in Buffalo. The Bills are favored.
The Chiefs face the Texans, with C.J. Stroud’s playoff struggles continuing in Kansas City. The Jaguars face the Bengals, and the simulation gives the Jags the win despite Joe Burrow’s perfect record in the wild card round.
In the NFC, the Bills-Lions matchup is the most ironic way for the Rams’ season to end. They traded away Jared Goff to Detroit in 2021, and the computer projects Goff to get the last laugh by taking down the Rams in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Eagles beat the Bears. The 49ers upset the Falcons in Atlanta.
Divisional Round
The Ravens and Jaguars meet, with the computer loving Baltimore. The Bills and Chiefs face off, and Josh Allen finally beats the Chiefs in the playoffs for the first time.
In the NFC, the Seahawks beat the 49ers. The Lions beat the Eagles. Both teams advance to the conference title games.
Conference Title Games
The AFC Championship pits Lamar Jackson against Josh Allen, with Jackson finally ending his Super Bowl drought. The Bills lose because Baltimore’s offense is too much for their defense.
The NFC Championship is Seahawks over Lions in Seattle, with the Seahawks winning again for the second straight year.
Super Bowl LXI
Super Bowl LXI features the Ravens and the Seahawks. Jackson faces Allen with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The projections are bold, and they are built on a single week of evidence. But the NFC South’s chaos and the Rams’ rough start make the bracket fun to watch unfold.
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