Xavier Becerra has opened a wider lead over Steve Hilton in the race to become California’s next governor, according to a new statewide survey.
The poll, conducted Sept. 4–10 by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), found Becerra leading Hilton 60% to 38% among likely voters. That is up from the previous poll by UC Berkeley (Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times), which showed Becerra at 55% and Hilton at 37%.
Hilton dismissed the poll as misleading. “This poll is totally at odds with the latest poll on billionaire tax, which is 11% not 22%,” he said. He also pointed to low GOP turnout, saying “The GOP turnout is way off.”
He added: “Californians are desperate for change and we have momentum” and “Becerra is a career politician and electing him is four more years of the one-party rule of the last 16.”
The Numbers Behind the Lead
Becerra’s advantage runs deep. A whopping 93% of Democrats said they would vote for him, while 92% of Republicans backed Hilton. Independent voters favored Becerra 57% to 38%.
Becerra held majority support across age, education, gender, homeownership and income groups. The Central Valley was the only major exception, where Hilton led 52% to 46%.
The poll surveyed 1,745 California adults, including 1,103 likely voters, conducted online in English and Spanish by Ipsos using its KnowledgePanel.
Affordability is a major driver. It is very important to 65% of likely voters in determining their vote.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The PPIC survey gauged how Californians see the economy. Seventy-one percent of California adults expect bad financial times over the next 12 months, and 54% said things are going wrong.
Support for Proposition 40, the billionaire tax measure, stands at 52% in favor. In House races, 62% of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate, 36% the Republican.
Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026.
Matt Klink, a Republican strategist, offered a blunt assessment of Hilton’s prospects. “Steve Hilton needed all the pieces to fall into place and for Xavier Becerra to make a major mistake to have a chance at victory this November,” he said.
Klink added: “Neither has happened and, unless something radically changes, we’re looking at a blowout by Secretary Becerra, who is largely hiding from the California voters.”
What This Means for the Race
The numbers suggest a strong position for Becerra heading into November. His lead has grown since the last poll, and he holds independents as well as Democrats.
Hilton’s response points to the billionaire tax measure as his counter. He framed the PPIC result as inconsistent with a separate poll showing a different number.
“This poll is totally at odds with the latest poll on billionaire tax, which is 11% not 22%”
The Central Valley remains the one region where Hilton has a chance to compete. Everywhere else, the pattern is the same: Becerra leads, and the margin is growing.
The PPIC survey offers a snapshot of a race that is already decided in one direction. Whether Hilton can close the gap on affordability or the billionaire tax remains to be seen. For now, the numbers belong to Becerra.
Here is how the race looks:
- Becerra leads 60% to 38% among likely voters.
- The gap has widened from 18 to 22 points.
- Independents favor Becerra 57% to 38%.
- Democrats back Becerra 93%; Republicans back Hilton 92%.
- The billionaire tax measure draws 52% support.
The PPIC survey offers a snapshot of a race that is already decided in one direction. Whether Hilton can close the gap on affordability or the billionaire tax remains to be seen. For now, the numbers belong to Becerra.
Where the paper stands
The paper backs Becerra’s candidacy against the concentration of power in government, and is against treating the governor’s race as a horse race between two machines that both gather power. The paper does not back a party, but it backs a candidate who supports individual freedom, small business and no concentrations of power.
The numbers show Becerra ahead by 22 points among likely voters, up from 18 points before. Independents favor him 57% to 38%, and he holds majority support across nearly every demographic group except the Central Valley. Those numbers reflect a race where Becerra is the clear favorite.
What the reader should watch for is whether Hilton can close the gap on affordability or the billionaire tax. The paper will continue to judge candidates issue by issue against its north star, without treating the race as a contest between two machines.
Source material: “New California governor poll shows Xavier Becerra widening lead over Steve Hilton,” the New York Post.
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