New customers can get $150 in bonus bets from BetMGM if their opening stake wins, or up to $1,500 in bonus bets if that initial bet loses, using the promo code CBSSPORTS. The deal covers Friday’s five-game college football schedule, with three ranked squads involved. The promotion is running at BetMGM Sportsbook, where the main event is the Kansas vs. Missouri Border War, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
SportsLine’s Projection Model lists the Jayhawks as underdogs by 5.5 points, with the total set at 51.5 points. The model runs simulations of every FBS game some 10,000 times, and its top-rated CFB money-line picks have gone 33-20 since the 2024 season. It was improved for the 2026 season to handle the transfer portal more accurately.
Friday’s Three Picks
SportsLine lists three best bets for Friday:
- Louisville (-36.5) vs. Villanova (-108)
- Rutgers vs. Boston College: Over 54.5 total points scored (-105)
- Kansas (+5.5) vs. Missouri (-108)
When placed together as a single wager, the three selections return a total payout of +624, meaning you stand to earn a profit of $624 for every $100 risked. The odds shown here can be adjusted at any time.
Louisville’s Home Game
SportsLine expert Emory Hunt spoke about the Louisville (-36.5) vs. Villanova (-108) game. “I know there are no moral victories in football, but you have to be impressed by what the Louisville Cardinals showed in the second half vs Ole Miss,” Hunt said. “QB Lincoln Keinholz looked dynamic and confident as a playmaker, nearly leading his team to victory. There ought to be some positive momentum coming into this home game vs. Villanova.”
Hunt added that Villanova has struggled this season. The Wildcats opened with an “epic collapse” against William and Mary, then barely beat Bucknell last weekend, 17-16. “I don’t expect them to offer much resistance vs. what this Cardinals squad will deliver.”
Rutgers and Boston College
Rutgers’ defense got tested in Week 1. The Scarlet Knights allowed UMass to score nearly four times its season average from last year. UMass averaged 9.7 points per game last season, the lowest in the nation, but it scored 37 points against Rutgers in the opener. UMass won 37-21, going Over this total.
The Eagles had trouble stopping opponents, giving up 34 points to Cincinnati, a team that did not rank among the top 60 in scoring last season. Across the model’s simulations, the Over is projected to occur in 59.3% of them.
Kansas Under Coach Leipold
Kansas has improved under head coach Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks have gone from averaging 1.8 wins per season in the 10 seasons before Leipold to now averaging 5.4 wins per season under his coaching.
Kansas rolled over Long Island University, 51-6, last week. In last year’s Border War, the Jayhawks jumped out to a 21-6 lead before losing 42-31. Home-field advantage could make the difference Friday night.
The model projects Kansas to cover in 67% of simulations.
Responsible Gaming
Responsible gaming is essential when placing wagers, and BetMGM Sportsbook provides several tools to support it. These include live chat, gaming limits and timeout options. The sportsbook also lists contact information for helplines, such as 1-800-MY-RESET, which bettors can call or text 24/7.
Key Numbers
- Bonus code: CBSSPORTS
- First bet win: $150 in bonus bets
- First bet loss: Up to $1,500 in bonus bets
- Kansas vs. Missouri: 8 p.m. ET
- Total: 51.5 points
- Parlay payout: +624
- Model simulations: 10,000
- Model record: 33-20 since the 2024 season
- Over projection: 59.3%
- Cover projection: 67%
How the Model Works
| Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| Simulations | 10,000 per FBS game |
| Record | 33-20 since the 2024 season |
| Upgrade | Better accounts for the transfer portal |
| Cover projection | Kansas to cover in 67% of simulations |
No background is given for how the model’s picks work — what a “top-rated” pick means, how its 33-20 run stacks up against other models, or if the upgrade tied to the transfer portal made any difference. The selections stand on their own: Louisville is heavily favored over Villanova, the Over is the call in the Rutgers vs. Boston College game, and Kansas earns the model’s backing as a home underdog.
A reader who wants to place a wager can rely solely on the picks themselves. A reader who wants to know why those picks were made finds no explanation beyond the model’s own claim. It works out fairly for someone who trusts the model, and it gives reason to stop and think for someone who does not.