The Chiefs and the Broncos open the NFL season on Monday night, and a model that claims a strong record on betting picks is backing the low total. Kansas City is the favorite, but the model says the game will stay under 42.5 points.
The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It enters the 2026 season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024.
Opening the Season
The Chiefs come in looking to bounce back from a rough 2025 campaign. They slipped to 6-11 last season.
Denver, meanwhile, was dominant last year. The Broncos went 14-3 and earned their first division title since 2015. They reached the AFC Championship Game, where they lost 10-7 to the New England Patriots.
Offensive lineman Josh Simmons (back) and defensive back Chamarri Conner (knee) are both inactive for Kansas City.
The Model’s Track Record
SportsLine’s projection model is the engine behind these picks. It runs each game 10,000 times and produces probabilities for every possible outcome. The model’s public record is impressive: 53-37 on top-rated picks since 2024.
The model is going Under 42.5 combined points (-108) at betting apps. That means the model expects fewer than 42.5 total points to be scored in the game. The over/under is down a point from the opener.
Quarterbacks and Their Injuries
The key to this pick is the quarterbacks. Both Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Bo Nix of the Broncos are coming off serious injuries.
SportsLine’s model projects that Nix will be held to under 200 yards passing with just one touchdown. That is a modest projection for a player who threw for a significant amount of yards and a reasonable number of touchdowns last season.
Mahomes is projected to throw for 180 yards and one score. That is a fraction of his usual output. Mahomes threw for a large number of yards and a double-digit number of touchdowns in the regular season last year.
Comparing the Defenses
Both teams have strong defenses. The Broncos allowed just 18.3 points per game last year, third-least in the NFL. The Chiefs were also solid, allowing 19.3 points, which was No. 6.
Those numbers suggest a low-scoring affair even if the quarterbacks play at full strength. With both men coming off injuries, the model sees the total falling below the line.
| Team | Record | Key Player | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 6-11 last season | Patrick Mahomes | 180 yards, 1 TD |
| Broncos | 14-3 last season | Bo Nix | Under 200 yards, 1 TD |
The Spread and the Total
The model’s main recommendation is the Under at 42.5 points. It projects 40 combined points between the Broncos vs. Chiefs as the Under hitting 63% of the time.
The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. SportsLine has not released which side that is.
The Picks at SportsLine
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What This Means for Bettors
The model’s approach is simple: it projects a low-scoring game and backs the Under. The question is whether the quarterbacks’ injuries will slow them down enough to justify those projections.
Mahomes throwing for 180 yards would be a significant drop from his usual production. Nix under 200 yards would be a significant drop from his usual production. Both projections are plausible given the injury context, but they are extreme.
The model is going Under 42.5 combined points (-108) at betting apps.
The Verdict on the Model
The model has a real track record, with 53 wins against 37 losses on top-rated picks since 2024. That is a good record.
The model’s projections for the quarterbacks are aggressive. It is asking bettors to believe that two star quarterbacks, both coming off serious injuries, will combine for fewer than 400 passing yards. That is less than half of what Mahomes alone throws in a normal game.
The model’s Under pick is a bet on two injured quarterbacks playing below their ceilings. It is also a bet on two strong defenses carrying the game.
Final Word
The Chiefs are the better team on paper. The model is taking the Under. The spread has not been disclosed publicly.
Bettors who trust the model’s history might want to consider the Under at 42.5 points. Those who want to back the Chiefs outright should wait for the full pick to be revealed.
The game is a statement opener for both franchises. The model has made its call. Now it is time to see whether the quarterbacks can defy the projections.
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