The New England Patriots opened the season with a 13-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and the quarterback who threw three interceptions is now facing the biggest test of his young career. Drake Maye got the ball in the hands of Mack Hollins in the end zone in the final seconds of that game, and the pass was picked off, costing the Patriots a chance to tie. The loss stung, especially since the season opener was far more competitive than the Super Bowl LX defeat that ended last year.
But the Patriots have reasons to believe this week will be different. They return home as defending AFC champions, and the fans who packed the stadium last year will be eager to see their team bounce back. The Steelers are coming to town, and they bring a defense led by T.J. Watt that can make life difficult for anyone. Still, the prediction is that New England will win, 28-21.
The Case for Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is the centerpiece of this matchup. The former Green Bay Packers star has said that the 2026 season will be his last, and he is playing with a Hall of Fame career on the line. The Steelers offense is not explosive, but Rodgers can attack the New England defense and find the soft spots.
In the season opener, Rodgers put the ball in the air 40 times against the Atlanta Falcons. He completed 24 passes for 221 yards and threw one touchdown to tight end Pat Friermuth. Jaylen Warren struggled in the running game, carrying just 10 times for 40 yards, and Rodgers had to throw often to move the ball.
The prediction is that Rodgers will throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns this week. The Steelers will need more from the running game if they want to support the 42-year-old quarterback. Warren is healthy and capable of handling 15 to 20 carries, but the coaching staff must make a concerted effort to establish the ground game.
DK Metcalf is the clear target to watch. He is the Steelers’ best offensive weapon and can make the contested catch against the Patriots’ aggressive secondary. In the opener, Metcalf was targeted 10 times and caught just four for 40 yards. The prediction calls for him to double his production and catch at least one touchdown pass.
Maye’s Big Weekend
Drake Maye is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he should continue to grow this year. He became a sensational leader and a dominant quarterback last season, leading the Patriots to the AFC title and the Super Bowl. Even though he struggled in the opener and in the Super Bowl, he is not about to let those mistakes linger.
Maye is an excellent athlete with the speed to run away from the pass rush and either make plays with his legs or buy time for his receivers to get open. He showed he can read defenses and find the soft spots despite throwing three interceptions against the Seahawks. The heat is on after that performance, but the prediction is that he will bounce back.
The Patriots lost A.J. Brown to a high ankle sprain in the opener, and he will not likely play until Week 8, when the Patriots face the Miami Dolphins. That loss hurts, but the team added Romeo Doubs in the offseason. Doubs struggled in the opener, but he is capable of having a big game and filling a key role for head coach Mike Vrabel.
Mack Hollins knows how to get open on key third-down plays when the Patriots need to convert to keep drives alive. Hunter Henry is another solid third-down and red-zone weapon. With Brown out, the receiving corps is thinner, but Maye has options.
Watt’s Defensive Pressure
T.J. Watt is one of the most dangerous defensive players in the NFL, and he can turn the game in the Steelers’ favor. In the opener, he had four tackles, two sacks and a fourth-quarter pick-6 that gave Pittsburgh a 10-point lead and control of the game. The Patriots will need to protect Maye from Watt’s pressure.
Watt is a threat to the quarterback and to the passing game. The prediction is that Maye will keep his eye on him, but the Steelers defense will still make life difficult for the Patriots.
What the Numbers Show
The predictions are built on a few key numbers from the opening games:
- Rodgers threw 40 passes for 221 yards against the Falcons, with one touchdown to Friermuth.
- Warren carried 10 times for 40 yards against Atlanta.
- Metcalf was targeted 10 times and caught four for 40 yards in the opener.
- Maye threw three interceptions against the Seahawks.
- Brown is out until Week 8 with a high ankle sprain.
Those numbers paint a picture of a Steelers offense that leans heavily on Rodgers’ arm and a Patriots quarterback who is still learning how to manage the game. The difference is that Maye has the weapons around him to succeed, even without Brown, while Rodgers is working without a strong running game.
The Home Crowd Advantage
The Patriots are returning to their home field after winning the AFC title on the road last year. The fans will give them a warm welcome, and that support could be the difference in a close game. The Patriots are 5.5-point favorites, but T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense are capable of making life difficult for the Patriots.
New England should have an advantage, but the margin is small. The game will come down to which quarterback performs better under pressure.
The Bottom Line
The game will be a test for both teams. The Patriots need a win to start their title defense, and the Steelers need to prove they can compete with the league’s best. The prediction is that the Patriots will win, but the path will not be easy.
The formula is simple: Maye throws for 275 yards and three touchdowns, Rodgers throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the Patriots’ defense holds on. The home crowd will matter, and the Patriots have the weapons to make it happen.
The question is whether Maye can shake off the opener and play at his best. He has shown he can do it, but the pressure is real. The Steelers will test him, and the prediction is that he will respond.
The final score: Patriots 28, Steelers 21.
Get the Notebook.
The day's best stories and every fresh verdict, in plain English, in your inbox by seven. One email a day, no more.